What earned Silver a rare chapter all his own was that he kept doubling down, refusing to learn from his many, many mistakes. Even as late as April, Silver said Trump would fall short of the delegates needed to win on a first ballot and therefore Republicans would nominate someone else.
None of his nonsensical predicts were based on his vaunted computer program that designed to forecast elections. Instead he was obstinate and caught up in a crazy Never Trump frenzy. But Silver has learned his lesson.
TRUMP now leads in 538's now-cast, our estimate of what would happen in an election today. https://t.co/djsqNajFrh pic.twitter.com/7DvrdieHOw— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 25, 2016
CLINTON still leads in our polls-plus model, which adjusts for Trump's convention bounce. https://t.co/zo8rbYw56E pic.twitter.com/J0G2D5PHxK— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 25, 2016
In the general election, Silver is going back to what made his name because he tarnished his reputation. While I am a chronic critic of him, and believe he is over-rated, I give him props for learning and moving on.
His analysis is dead on:
Before we run through the polls, a note of caution: The convention bounce is going to be harder than usual to study this year. That’s because in contrast to 2012, when the polls were extremely steady for weeks before the conventions, they were on the move heading into the RNC this year. In particular, they were on the move toward Trump — or away from Clinton — with Trump whittling down what had been a 6- or 7-percentage point lead for Clinton in late June into something more like a 3-point lead by mid-July.
So when you see a new poll suggesting that Trump has received a bounce, or failed to receive one, you’ll want to be mindful of when the previous edition of the poll was conducted. If the pollster had last surveyed the race in June, odds are that Trump has made some fairly big gains. Some of those were probably realized before the convention and not because of it, however. But if the previous edition of the poll was in July,1 his gains are likely to be smaller.Not mentioned is the non-indictment. I misjudged the public's reaction. I thought people would view her being above the law as a sign of how strong she is, much like people in New York admired John Gotti. However, I underestimated the American love of justice. She got away with it again, and people who didn't like her to begin moved on to Trump.
At any rate, congratulations to Nate Silver for going back to what he used to do.
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