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Saturday, July 23, 2016

Michael Moore is smarter than Nate Silver

Yep. Meanwhile, media darling Nate Silver -- he uses computers to forecast elections so he is always right -- gave Trump a 20 percent chance.

From Nate Silver: "Donald Trump Has A 20 Percent Chance Of Becoming President."

Yes. That is right. A year after blowing of Trump, Nate Silver is blowing of Trump again. (Silver gets a chapter all his own in my book.)

But this time it is different.
For me, the lesson of the primaries is that one needs to be more rigorous, not less so, when forecasting elections. That means building a model instead of winging it. In contrast to our early, back-of-the-envelope skepticism about Trump, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast models were largely accurate in the primaries, with our polls-only model calling 53 of 58 races correctly and our polls-plus model calling 52 of 58. The polls were a long way from being perfect, but they were wrong within normal parameters: Upsets happened about as often as they were supposed to happen, according to our models.
That's not science. That's guessing. Science would be 58 out of 58, and even then you might not have proved it.

(I met my first computer programmer 41 years ago -- a gruff burly former typesetter, not today's stereotype -- and he told me the four magic words which should caution every practitioner of that craft: Garbage in, garbage out.)

But Silver pressed forward.
A 20 percent or 25 percent chance of Trump winning is an awfully long way from 2 percent, or 0.02 percent. It’s a real chance: about the same chance that the visiting team has when it trails by a run in the top of the eighth inning in a Major League Baseball game. If you’ve been following politics or sports over the past couple of years, I hope it’s been imprinted onto your brain that those purported long shots — sometimes much longer shots than Trump — sometimes come through.
But the polls establish Clinton as a fairly clear favorite. And in contrast to almost everything else this election cycle, the polls have mostly been right so far.
Mostly right?

Thank God journalists and pollsters are not engineers then.

Now readers will say, hey Don, this column by Silver you refer to is a month old.

Precisely. That's my point. He is a fraud. Phony. Fake. If he were using science, a prediction made in June would hold up in November.

But Silver fools the pundits and the political consultancy class. Here is the cheat that Silver uses: He boldly predicts the election outcome the day before the election based on the consensus of other people's polls. Kreskin has more credibility.

Moore ain't saying Hillary won't win. He is saying she has a lot of work to do to rally the troops, and they ain't budging. Yet. No one would give her an 80 percent chance. Not now. Not then.
--

"Trump the Press: Don Surber's take on how the pundits blew the 2016 Republican race," is now on sale.

Steve Hayward of Power Line, Leslie Eastman at Legal Insurrection, Deny Wilson at Grouchy Old Crouch, and Austin Bay at Instapundit gave it glowing reviews.

Please purchase "Trump the Press" through Create Space

And its Kindle release is on July 25. Pre-order here, please.

Autographed copies are $20 each. Please email me at DonSurber@gmail.com 

Regardless of how you purchase this must reading for Trump supporters and media critics alike. Please post a book review on the Amazon site. That helps attract other readers.

16 comments:

  1. hilLIARy's campaign is DOA. Good luck rounding up a mark to take the bullet and run as her Veep. Kaine is a loser loyal liberal sap who isn't going anywhere, he was as good a sucker, er, candidate as anyone. I would imagine that younger Dem hopefuls (communists, all) would not touch the old battleaxe loser w a 20-foot pole.

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  2. Just like obama selecting low IQ biden as his running mate so he would not be shown up for his lack of intellect, hillary chose another corrupt democrat so she would not be shown up for her corruption.

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  3. I just came from trying to post a comment about "Trump the Press" on Amazon - as requested.

    Also, per request, I bought my copy from Create Space which unfortunately took 9 days to deliver (Amazon, typically 2 days even without paying extra for fast shipping.)

    Also unfortunately, it seems that Amazon doesn't take customer reviews from non-Amazon buyers, which actually makes sense.

    So I had to "comment" on Z Regime's review.

    I Did want to mention that the downside of reading the book - and this blog ;-) is that I've had my eyes opened and now have a lot fewer news sites worth reading.

    Same goes for Radio - I still find Rush to be amazingly accurate, but past favorite Mark Levin has exposed himself as a hack - I particularly resent this "We all have to stick together" fraud now "supporting" Trump by damning him with faint praise. VERY faint.

    Basically, that jerk is throwing a monkey wrench in the works because Trump is a realist rather than a "textbook conservative."

    Keep up the good work, Don.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you for your feedback. Sorry about the Create Space experience. Nice assessment of Mister T.

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    2. I bought an autographed copy direct from Don; posted an Amazon review without any trouble.
      Bertha

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  4. Gosh, I hate it when you get your information wrong.

    The latest stats from fivethirtyeight.com show that Tim Kaine only adds about a 0.7 percent chance that a VP pick from Virginia would swing the election to Clinton.

    As for the ever-changing (with every new poll) data from Nate Silver on who is likely-to-win the election, the margin today is 57.7% Hillary - 42.3% Trump.

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  5. Gosh, I hate it when you get your information wrong.

    The latest stats from fivethirtyeight.com show that Tim Kaine only adds about a 0.7 percent chance that a VP pick from Virginia would swing the election to Clinton.

    As for the ever-changing (with every new poll) data from Nate Silver on who is likely-to-win the election, the margin today is 57.7% Hillary - 42.3% Trump.

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  6. Your Nate Silver chapter had a great title!
    I do hope the Dems are taking Nate's predictions as truth.

    Sam L.

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  7. "A year after blowing of Trump, Nate Silver is blowing of Trump again."

    In what is probably a subliminal message to Nate Silver, Don seems to have left the "F" off.

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  8. Today I ordered my copy of "Trump the Press," I'm really looking forward to devouring it! (I ordered thru email/PayPal for the autographed copy, I hope it comes real soon!)

    As to Nate Silver- "all that glitters ain't silver," as the old saying goes. He uses an Atari, he couldn't handle the PS3 because it was too advanced for him, and reading the entrails of a dead chicken would be as accurate... OK, more accurate!

    I'm not surprised that The Fat Ugly One would predict Trump winning, though- he may be a jerk, and he may be a propagandist, but he isn't totally stupid. Even he knows better than to bet on Silver!

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    1. Can't wait to hear what Jabba (aka "The Fat Ugly One") thinks about the DNC's NeverSanders prejudice and bias, as detailed by WikiLeaks.

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  9. There were always those who said Silver was a shill to convince the gullible that, when the vote fraud machine kicked in, it was all predicted in the polls.

    That said, The Big Fat Pig actually may have gotten one right, although I think it will not only be the stay at homes, but the party-switchers who came out in the primaries for Trump who swing this.

    '68 again.

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  10. Eskyman, Very funny! I was thinking that Nate maybe was nerding out on the old TRS80 ("Trash 80" as the nerds called it) from Radio Shack. That boy don't learn very fast, does he? He has nothing on Jethro Bodine.

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  11. I hope Don is working on his sequel for when Trump wins in November.

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    1. Wonder what he'll call it.

      I rather like "Kicking Over The Table", which would appeal to both believers (Matthew 21:12-14) and honest gamblers alike.

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  12. Probabilities for a one time event like an election is meaningless. For a one-on-one election, the probability is 50% for each. Since there are minor parties playing, the odds for the main players may be 49.999999%. Whatever. Talking variable odds is on important to bookies and gamblers.

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