Yep. Meanwhile, media darling Nate Silver -- he uses computers to forecast elections so he is always right -- gave Trump a 20 percent chance.Show me 1 voter gained by naming Tim Kaine. Att'n Hillary campaign: It's not Trump who'll beat u. It's the people who are going to stay home— Michael Moore (@MMFlint) July 23, 2016
From Nate Silver: "Donald Trump Has A 20 Percent Chance Of Becoming President."
Yes. That is right. A year after blowing of Trump, Nate Silver is blowing of Trump again. (Silver gets a chapter all his own in my book.)
But this time it is different.
For me, the lesson of the primaries is that one needs to be more rigorous, not less so, when forecasting elections. That means building a model instead of winging it. In contrast to our early, back-of-the-envelope skepticism about Trump, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast models were largely accurate in the primaries, with our polls-only model calling 53 of 58 races correctly and our polls-plus model calling 52 of 58. The polls were a long way from being perfect, but they were wrong within normal parameters: Upsets happened about as often as they were supposed to happen, according to our models.That's not science. That's guessing. Science would be 58 out of 58, and even then you might not have proved it.
(I met my first computer programmer 41 years ago -- a gruff burly former typesetter, not today's stereotype -- and he told me the four magic words which should caution every practitioner of that craft: Garbage in, garbage out.)
But Silver pressed forward.
A 20 percent or 25 percent chance of Trump winning is an awfully long way from 2 percent, or 0.02 percent. It’s a real chance: about the same chance that the visiting team has when it trails by a run in the top of the eighth inning in a Major League Baseball game. If you’ve been following politics or sports over the past couple of years, I hope it’s been imprinted onto your brain that those purported long shots — sometimes much longer shots than Trump — sometimes come through.
But the polls establish Clinton as a fairly clear favorite. And in contrast to almost everything else this election cycle, the polls have mostly been right so far.Mostly right?
Thank God journalists and pollsters are not engineers then.
Now readers will say, hey Don, this column by Silver you refer to is a month old.
Precisely. That's my point. He is a fraud. Phony. Fake. If he were using science, a prediction made in June would hold up in November.
But Silver fools the pundits and the political consultancy class. Here is the cheat that Silver uses: He boldly predicts the election outcome the day before the election based on the consensus of other people's polls. Kreskin has more credibility.
Moore ain't saying Hillary won't win. He is saying she has a lot of work to do to rally the troops, and they ain't budging. Yet. No one would give her an 80 percent chance. Not now. Not then.
"Trump the Press: Don Surber's take on how the pundits blew the 2016 Republican race," is now on sale.
Steve Hayward of Power Line, Leslie Eastman at Legal Insurrection, Deny Wilson at Grouchy Old Crouch, and Austin Bay at Instapundit gave it glowing reviews.
Please purchase "Trump the Press" through Create Space.
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