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Friday, June 17, 2016

Why should Trump be worried?

So the media is going on about the polls. Trump is behind. A couple of stories explain why Trump should be very, very, very, extremely worried -- according to them:

From the New York Times on May 15, 1988:
Poll Shows Dukakis Leads Bush; Many Reagan Backers Shift Sides
Michael S. Dukakis is capitalizing on deep public doubts about Vice President Bush and the Reagan Administration's handling of key issues and has emerged as the early favorite for the Presidential election in November, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
Mr. Dukakis, the probable Democratic nominee, ran ahead of Mr. Bush, the almost certain Republican candidate, by 49 percent to 39 percent among 1,056 registered voters.
The survey, conducted May 9-12, represented a significant advance for Mr. Dukakis since a Times/CBS News Poll in March when Mr. Bush had 46 percent and Mr. Dukakis had 45 percent.
In the latest poll, Governor Dukakis of Massachusetts led in all regions, but he ran especially well in the Northeast and Middle West. The poll found Mr. Dukakis with very substantial advantages over Mr. Bush among women, union members, Roman Catholics and blacks. 
Strikingly, 28 percent of those who said they voted for President Reagan in 1984 said they preferred Mr. Dukakis over Mr. Bush this time; only 9 percent of those who said they backed Walter F. Mondale in 1984 switched to Mr. Bush. Mr. Dukakis was also far ahead among those who said they did not vote in 1984, and he scored well even in groups where President Reagan continues to be popular - notably among voters under 30 years old.
One reason why Mr. Reagan's personal popularity may not helping Mr. Bush very much is that voters said that his Administration had performed poorly on key issues, notably drugs, which was named the nation's most important problem by 16 percent of the entire public, more than named any other. Democrats generally and Mr. Dukakis in particular were seen as more likely to deal with the problem effectively than were the Republicans and Mr. Bush.
Be worried, Donald Trump. That was an insurmountable 10-point lead for Bush in 1988.

Latest CBS Poll has Hillary up by 6. Same as May.

Coming soon -- "Trump the Press: Don Surber's take on how the pundits blew the 2016 Republican race."

11 comments:

  1. As you mention, we've seen this before - the use of "polls" to influence voters. Won't work this time.

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  2. And,m of course, Dukamimi didn't have a built-in skew to count on.

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  3. Mark Twain said that "there are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Polls." Okay, so I changed it a little bit. - Elric

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  4. Ah! For those innocent days of yore, when our worst problem was:

    ... "notably drugs, which was named the nation's most important problem by 16 percent of the entire public, more than named any other".

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  5. I'm just disregarding polls until the 1st debate happens. Positive and negative ones.

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  6. Come writers and critics
    Who prophesize with your pen
    And keep your eyes wide
    The chance won't come again
    And don't speak too soon
    For the wheel's still in spin
    And there's no tellin' who
    That it's namin'
    For the loser now
    Will be later to win
    For the times they are a-changin'.

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  7. If the media hadn't been in the tank for President Dukakis, Bush would have won. (From Mr. Peabody's Improbable History)

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  8. Yeah, even a few of my hardcore DJT friends have started wringing their hands. I'm like, would y'all chill the eff out? If this were a football game, we'd just be finishing the starting introductions. The Anthem hasn't even been played yet! July, August, September, October. 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th quarters. Trump's got this. No doubt.

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    Replies
    1. If the election were a football game, Hillary would be in the bathroom in Chappaqua, using her private email server to contact the equipment manager before the game and asking him to deflate the election footballs.

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  9. I haven't seen any of the polls' "internals", but I wouldn't be surprised if they were loaded up with Democrats. Our scumbag media will do anything to help Hillary.

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