Please purchase "Trump the Press" through Create Space.

The book is on Kindle. Order here.

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Trump the polls

The Rasmussen Poll became the first poll in a month to show Trump ahead, by five points. This is worth considering because of the way Rasmussen conducted the survey.

Rasmussen used Likely Voters, a more expensive but more accurate method of capturing the electorate's mood than the Registered Voters polls. The expense comes in targeting the calls. You call 1,000 registered voters to get 600 likely voters rather than calling 600 registered voters.

Registered Voters polls are biased toward Democrats, historically. All the other polls in the Real Clear Polls Average are RV polls.

Polls in June are as meaningless as baseball standings in June. A year ago, Trump was under five percent. But the press plays this up because they want to stop the Trump Express, and in their hearts they fear they cannot, because they cannot.

Have faith. A year ago, they wrote him off. From my chapter on Nate Silver -- the media's Official Polling Guru -- in my book, "Trump the Press":
“Basically Trump is the Nickelback of presidential candidates. Disliked by most, super popular with a few,” Silver tweeted on July 15.
A month later on August 6, the Baghdad Bob of the army of the Goliaths, wrote, “If you want absurd specificity, I recently estimated Trump’s chance of becoming the GOP nominee at 2 percent.”
By August, Trump dominated the polls.

Nate Silver is an anti-Trump liberal.

Worse, he was and is wrong, now giving Trump a 20 percent chance.

Do not believe him.

Buy my book instead :)

By the way, I received the print proof on Tuesday. It looks terrific. No typos. None.

And I autographed it and sent it to Mister Trump.

---

Please purchase my book "Trump the Press" through Create Space, as I get a larger royalty. It is a subsidiary of Amazon. The book will take a few days to be listed on Amazon, likely July 8. I have no control over that.

Also, please post a book review on the Amazon site. That helps attract other readers.

They have begun work on the Kindle edition.

13 comments:

  1. I always take polls with a grain of salt, but Rasmussen is about the best. He is one of the few pollsters who doesn't seem to go into the poll with an agenda. - Elric

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The problem is that Scott Rasmussen sold his polling company about two years ago. So I have no idea how directly he is still involved, nor whether the new owners are still holding to the same standards that he did.

      Delete
  2. Likelies is the way to go. Any good observer will tell you that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You'll know Clinton is getting desperate when she states: "We have every reason to believe that the 'Don't Cares' are with us!"

      Delete
  3. I'll be picking up the kindle version when your book comes out. You beat Ann Coulter's book on the same subject by a month, but she already has the audio version ready to go.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am tempted to do audio but I would need to think about it

      Delete
  4. I'm soooo ready to buy this book.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Expect violent swings in the numbers from week to week.

    Things haven't gyrated like this since Granny got out of the go-go dancing game due to incipient arthritis.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your sister can't twist but she can rock and roll, out bucks the Broncos at the rodeo-do...

      Delete
  6. I wonder if Fox News will tout this poll as prominently as they did their own poll which showed Trump trailing by 6 pts?

    ReplyDelete
  7. No. Yesterday 6-29-16 one had them tied. It was never mentioned.
    Bert

    ReplyDelete
  8. Good move, Don, sending him your book.

    ReplyDelete
  9. The problem is you can't get the Rasmussen Democrat/Republican weighting in the poll unless you are a paying subscription member. Polls without that split are uninformative. -Thucydides

    ReplyDelete