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Saturday, June 11, 2016

Trump's critics have not learned a thing

In April 2010 when pundits were guessing that Republicans might pick up 25 seats in the House but would not topple Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics began hinting that it might be a historic win. Voters proved his instincts correct by giving Republicans a net gain of 63 seats.

This year, he missed the Trumpvolution early on. But he's licked his wounds and moved on. Looking toward November, he wrote this:
When news breaks, I can get a solid left-of-center perspective from smart writers like Benjy Sarlin, Greg Sargent, and Greg Dworkin. I can find good right-of-center takes from Heather Wilhelm, Charles C.W. Cooke, and Jay Cost. Libertarians? You can follow Peter Suderman, Megan McArdle, and Nick Gillespie. You can get the political scientists’ take, the law professors’ take, the feminists’ take, the pollsters’ take, the economists’ take, the election analysts’ take, the activists’ take. The list goes on, with apologies to those whose names I left off; this paragraph could quickly become a page.
The beauty of Twitter and aggregators is that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.
But that’s the good news. Let’s turn to the bad.
To be blunt, everyone has lost their damned minds lately. Twitter, and commentary in general, has become a giant echo chamber. My Twitter feed has devolved into a mélange of undifferentiated opinions explaining not only why Donald Trump shouldn’t win this election, but also how and why it can’t possibly happen. I don’t just mean an overall take that he’s likely to lose. I mean a complete and utter rejection of any evidence proffered that might point in a direction that is favorable to Trump. Oh, and by the way, he might also be the Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse.
Let's see, Pestilence, War, Famine, Death, Trump.

Many are the theories as to why they missed it. I explore them briefly in my book. But what I like is that the DC Insiders who sneer at my neighbor for not having his degree have not learned a damned thing. Not one. They are the school kids whose only A's were in recess and study hall.

More from Trende:
I believe that most people in my Twitter feed, left and right, don’t know many genuine Trump supporters, if any. I can count two, maybe three among my Facebook friends, and I went to high school in Oklahoma. It’s the exact problem I discussed back in January: There’s a cosmopolitan vs. traditionalist divide that runs through our politics, with cultural cosmopolitans running both parties.
The fact that Trump is so firmly positioning himself against those cosmopolitans, more so than any national politician since Ronald Reagan, makes it difficult to evaluate his campaign, and deprives us of the conversation we need, because for the first time in a long time, a major party candidate isn’t really trying to curry favor with opinion leaders.
It is Manhattan versus the Outer Boroughs, a battle Trump has waged since his birth in Queens -- and won. He curries favor with the gossips, not the columnists. Smart move.

Trende gives him a 30 percent chance in the general.

I have a feeling Trende will be 70 percent wrong.

Coming soon -- "Trump the Press: Don Surber's take on how the pundits blew the 2016 Republican race."


  1. Pauline Kael, anyone?

    In the case of Trump, I'm pretty sure Trende does know Trump supporters. He just doesn't know that he knows them. Who wants to be called a racist (not that I think Trende himself would do this)? Trump supporters are attacked outside rallies. It's not hard to figure it out.

    I support Trump and live/work in a very liberal environment. Outside family, close friends, and the places on the web where I can comment anonymously, I never tell anyone.

    I suspect I'm not alone.

  2. The punditatriat hates the idea of the vast unwashed not getting the big picture.We who live "out there." are not aware of the big picture.What or where is "Out there?":
    We are going to win this one.
    TG McCoy

  3. had to use my wife's account-had trouble posting...

  4. I heard that Trump is going to peak at 30% and will be out of the race long before Super Tuesday.