He explained Trump as a stock.
Not an original thought...
But unlike Kristol, Arnade knows what he is talking about.Memo to @realDonaldTrump: We are past PEAK TRUMP! Sell-by date approaching. Plan EXIT STRATEGY before Iowa! ADIOS amigo! #ArtOfTheWithdrawal— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) July 22, 2015
In choosing a candidate, a voter is buying into that candidate. It is, in an oversimplified way, like buying a stock. In that sense, it is helpful to use some basic analysis from finance, to look at how/why voters make the choices they do.It's the penny stock versus the blue chips.
The elites are not Trump voters:
The elites have removed themselves physically. They cluster in certain towns (NYC, LA, Northern Virginia, Boston) and within those towns in certain neighborhoods. They dress differently. They eat differently. There is a culture of elitism.
The best single measure of elitism I see is education, the type and amount. A Harvard professor of sociology is more similar (despite different politics) to a Wall Street trader, than either is to a truck driver in Appleton, Wisconsin, or a waitress in Selma, or a construction worker in Detroit.Now my take -- not necessarily Arnade's -- is that in order to remain an elite, you must back Hillary, either overtly or in the passive-aggressive manner of Never Trump. This is like 2008, when you had to back Obama to remain elite. Sarah Palin gave conservatives an out. Ew, yucky. This is why Peggy Noonan said two months before the election, it is over.
Back to Arnade. He explained that the non-elites see the elites cashing in on Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama and are backing Trump:
Frustrated with broken promises, they gave up on the knowable and went with the unknowable. They chose Trump, because he comes with a very high distribution. A high volatility. (He also signals in ugly ways, that he might just move them, and only them and their friends, higher with his stated policies).
As any trader will tell you, if you are stuck lower, you want volatility, uncertainty. No matter how it comes. Put another way. Your downside is flat, your upside isn't. Break the system.
The elites loathe volatility. Because, the upside is limited, but the downside isn't. In option language, they are in the money.I prefer to think of Trump as a lottery ticket because - and this may be me projecting -- I do not expect Trump to do much if anything that he wants. But like Reagan in 1980 and Gingrich in 1994, what do we have to lose?
Arnade made it plain that it is not just economic issues that separate the elite from the rest of us. There are social values that
In part two of his piece, Arnade wrote:
Clinton has a few strategies.
1) Convince them she can also move them higher.
This would require a highly symbolic act to show Trump voters she gets them, a Sister Souljah moment (Google it kids.)
Given how far away, socially/culturally, she is from them, it would need something on the order of going hunting and shooting a doe, then eating it raw. Or backing Texas secession. Or more realistically, a highly visible dis of the black-lives movement.
It isn’t going to happen, because, A) anything of that magnitude would risk too much of her base. B) She does have some fundamental morals/ethics.
2) Convince Trump voters they do have downside.I don't think she can do either of these things. I believe she will not even try. Like Gore, Kerry, and Obama, she will scapegoat white, male, Christians -- much like other tyrants in history targeted Jews.
Oh and she does not like Jews, either.