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Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Trump and marriage

Most pundits read the polls by age and sex and race groups, which may explain why most pundits missed the Trumping of the Republican Party. Me? Well...

Let's look at the Reuters tracking poll, which showed Hillary up by 2.9 points (36.8% to 33.8%) on Friday.

But among married people, Trump was up by 9.1 points (41.8% to 32.7%).

How can this be? He has been married three times, while she enjoys a rock steady marriage that has lasted more than 40 years.

That's half the people Reuters polled. Among likely voters, 54% were married.

Trump is also up among divorced or separated people by 2 points (38% to 36%).

He also takes the widows by 6 points (40% to 34%).

Add the people up who are or have been married, and that is 67% of the people polled.

Where Hillary rakes is among the 33% who never married, where she is up by 15.6% (40.1% to 24.5%).

But among that crowd, 35.4 percent will vote for neither of them. Maybe they are Berning for Sanders. Maybe they will stay home.

Some would suggest that Trump pander to the never marrieds. I say continue to do what he is doing to attract the majority of the 67% who have been married at least once. They outnumber the unmarried two to one, and that means there are more undecideds in number than among the unmarried.

A plurality of married people prefer Trump.

The Bill Clinton effect?


Coming in June -- "Trump the Press: Don Surber's take on how the pundits blew the 2016 Republican race."


  1. The unmarrieds are a prime Demo constituency (remember Julia?). Anybody with a real life wants somebody real, not Hannah Horvath's idea of what a first love should be.

  2. Hmm. Marriage may be an indicator that someone will lean toward Trump, but it is the reason? Married people exhibit greater common sense and responsibility and have more real world experience. Perhaps pragmatism draws people toward him and the majority of pragmatic people are married. - Elric

  3. I concede that this is one hypothesis to explain the polls.

    Another is that no one poll group has a monopoly on functioning bullsh** detectors, and that's why the Hillary Shillary media bloc are finding that they're pumping dry wells.

  4. I find it Hillarious that a sham marriage could be held in high regard by our friends on the Left. Bill Clinton is a sex addict. Let's just not kid ourselves at this point. That'll be a great scene in the White House, right? Bill with his 16 year old Russians and Hill with Huma. Pornhub got nothin on that vid.

  5. Women who have been divorced want a divorced candidate who has paid the ex, taken care of the kids and has spent time with and maintained a good relationship with his kids. Trump has done this.