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Saturday, May 07, 2016

Never Trump will never hurt Trump

John Nolte of Breitbart News said he will blame Never Trump if The Donald loses in November.

Nope. Uh-unh. Wrong-oh. Let's look at the math.

Right now the Real Clear Politics Average Of Polls shows Clinton up 47.3 to Trump's 40.8. That means 11.9 are undecided.

Let's multiply the numbers by 10, leaving this:
Clinton 473
Trump 408
Undecided 119.
Now let us pretend all the Undecided are Never Trump. They stay home, she wins. They vote third party, she wins.

Reverse the numbers and Trump wins if Never Trump stays home or votes third party. The only way they could hurt him is if they become Hillary voters. They say they won't.

One more thing, in the Republican primaries, only two endorsements mattered: Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin and Bobby Knight in Indiana. All these politicians saying they will not endorse Trump are drama queens. Romney and Ryan lost the last presidential elections. Lindsay Graham and the rest of the pack of candidates this year are all losers as well. The two Presidents Bush are related to one of the losers.

Americans don't like losers.

The only endorsement among the politicians this year that now matters is Dick Cheney. He is Darth Vader. Americans want Darth Vader because they are tired of C3PO and Chewbacca, and want someone mean to deal with our enemies.

He just endorsed Trump.


  1. Dick Cheney! The slayer of Pat Leahy. Wyoming Warrior. His endorsement is YUGE.

  2. The big money people have told the Ryans to sit down and be quiet, it's over.

    As for polls, we already have one with Trump up 3, one even, and a couple where he's down but in the MOE. And it's only May.

    The point is, the NeverTrumpers are mostly Libertarians, a few sorehead Conservatives, and a very few diehard Cruz partisans (think Amanda Carpenter). In the big scheme of things, they really don't amount to that much.

  3. He's more machine now, than man....

  4. In 1992, couldn't you have used the same analysis to "prove" that Ross Perot wouldn't make a difference? But there seems to be a rough consensus that he did.

    And surely, Ralph Nader made a difference in 2000. I really would not dismiss the possibility that "Never Trump" could make a difference this year.

    It seems to me that to the extent that "Never Trump" or "Undecided" would normally vote Republican but won't do so this year, that WOULD make a difference.

  5. The problem I see with all this supposition is no one knows how many "Never Trump" people there are. Why assume there are enough to make a difference. The only ones we see or hear from are on TV being pushed by the GOPe or actual members of NT.

    1. "The problem I see with all this supposition is no one knows how many "Never Trump" people there are."

      We can make a good guess. A few hundred, maybe as many as 1000. Republican ones that is, we're not counting the Dem voters who won't vote for any Repub.

      Most of the #nevertrumper's are just virtue signalling drama queens.

  6. I like Darth Cheney or Darth Rumsfeld for Veep.

  7. For over 20 years the GOPe has told us to hold our nose and vote for their candidate because "electability". Now we put up our candidate and do they hold their nose? Jeb Bush, GWB, Bush 41, Lindsey Graham, Paul Ryan, Romney, George Will, Mary Madalin.
    How deep is the treachery? This deep.

  8. As Genghis Don said "The greatest happiness in life is to scatter your enemy and drive him before you. To see his cities reduced to ashes. To see those who love him shrouded and in tears. And to gather to your bosom his wives and daughters."

    Steve in Greensboro