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Saturday, May 28, 2016

How Trump will keep the Senate

Donald Trump is expanding the base as Republicans drew a record number of voters in the primaries and caucuses this year -- with five more states to go. The party meanwhile already is pouring staff and resources into 11 battleground states. Obama won 10 of them four years ago.

From the Hill:
The Republican National Committee (RNC) will double its staff in battleground states in the coming weeks in an effort to deliver the White House to Donald Trump and protect a slim majority in the Senate.
According to a memo from RNC political director Chris Carr, viewed first by The Hill, the organization will send additional 250 staffers to the 11 states likely to play the biggest role in determining the outcome of the 2016 presidential election.
The new hires will more than double the RNC’s presence in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
President Obama won all of those states except for North Carolina in 2012.
In addition to the race for the White House, eight of those state also have competitive Senate races.
The RNC is increasing its battleground state presence from 216 paid staffers to 466. It also says it has nearly 3,600 trained organizers in those states as it gears up to face likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the fall.
In the memo, Carr said the expansion was the culmination of a 1,000-day initiative launched by Chairman Reince Priebus with the aim of surpassing the Democrats’ long-standing advantage in electoral data and ground support.
What this means is this election is more like 1932 than 1964. Barack Obama's Ivy League blend of arrogance and incompetence has not only made him the nation's leading gun salesman, but has led to a down-ticket revival of the Republican Party.

Far from hurting the party, Trump's nomination is a godsend. He has brought millions of voters to the party without raising a lot of money. He can continue on that path, meaning donors will have money left over to give to Senate races. The RNC also does not have to compete with Trump for donors.

Going into 2016, Republicans had to defend 24 Senate seats, while Democrats had top defend only 10. Even winning a close presidential election could mean Republicans lose the Senate.

However, Republicans will get to play the Trump card. I doubt he wins by less than 5, which means the party would keep the Senate. In fact, it's a long shot now, but they could pick up seats.

Eight of those states that the RNC will pour resources in have Senate races. Six are held by Republicans, and two (Colorado and Nevada) are Democratic. In addition, Trump wants Rubio to seek a second term, which would flip a state that is now considered a toss-up into a likely Republican situation,

Meanwhile the spin from a clueless media in Washington is spectacularly wrong again. From David Drucker:
Trump's shoestring operation was good enough to win a primary, succeeding on his ability overwhelm opponents by dominating the new cycle. But Trump Tower is woefully unprepared to take on Hillary Clinton, lacking any semblance of a sophisticated field or digital program.
Last summer, they said he could not win the nomination. They learned nothing in the last 11 months. Not one damned thing. Trump already has tied her in the national polls. And he is not even warmed up yet.

Look for Trump critics to call him and the party lucky in November -- and look for the Never Trumpers to call in December for a rebellion in Congress against Trump and his crazy idea that we should put America First ahead of the Chamber of Commerce and Rupert Murdoch.

But we shall see.

In the meantime, I am rolling out the book that is a must read for every Trumpkin.


10 comments:

  1. Interesting piece, especially about Rubio.

    It would be better to rip out some of the old, dead wood, but handing the Senate back to Dingy Harry is not an option.

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    1. Reid's is out. Senate Democrats will be led by Schumer in the next session of Congress.

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  2. When will the print version be out, and how soon can we send you money for it?

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  3. To be determined but I am leaning to July 1 or July 4, but we shall see

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  4. The NeverTrumpers are pushing a third party not because they think they can beat Trump but instead to deny him the votes in the Electoral College to win. Then the election would go to the House of Representitives where they think they would have enough establishment votes to give the prize to someone else.

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  5. I've held off giving money to the RNC until now. I've been waiting for them to acknowledge Trump as the party's nominee (actually from the start I've been in favor of any nominee whose last name was not Bush). Now that it seems to have come to pass I am open to donating money to support the Senate races. The problem I have is there are too many establishment Senators with (R) after their names who need to be defeated so they cannot seek revenge against Trump by joining with Congressional Democrats to frustrate the programs and policies we need to Make America Great Again. Decision time has arrived.....

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    Replies
    1. There is a movement to Cantor Ryan in his primary and his opponent, Nehlen, could use a few bucks. Maybe you should visit his website and check him out.

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  6. In Bertolt Brecht's 'Drums in the Night' ('Trommeln in der Nacht'), there's a song that goes: “In November I was Red, yes Red. But it's January now."

    Substitute "NeverTrump" for "Red", and you've got a mental image of a lot of chastened blowhards queueing up to apply for gigs in President Trump's administration in the New Year.

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  7. Egg Zactly.

    THIS is why Sessions must not be considered for VP; no disrespect to the man whatsoever.
    Proper function of the Senate is all about the body count.

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