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Sunday, May 15, 2016

Higher negative ratings show Trump will win

“Upon this a question arises: whether it be better to be loved than feared or feared than loved? One should wish to be both, but, because it is difficult to unite them in one person, it is much safer to be feared than loved.” -- Niccolo Machiavelli, The Prince, 1513.

500 years later this remains true and this is why Trump shall win in November.

From FiveThirtyEight Politics comes this gem by Harry Enten, Dartmouth Class of 2011:
No past candidate comes close to Clinton, and especially Trump, in terms of engendering strong dislike a little more than six months before the election.
Clinton’s average “strongly unfavorable” rating in probability sample polls from late March to late April, 37 percent, is about 5 percentage points higher than the previous high between 19803 and 2012. Trump, though, is on another planet. Trump’s average “strongly unfavorable” rating, 53 percent, is 20 percentage points higher than every candidate’s rating besides Clinton’s. Trump is less disliked than David Duke was when Duke ran for the presidency in 1992, but Duke never came close to winning the nomination. In fact, I’ve seen never anything like Trump’s numbers heading into a general election for someone who is supposed to be competitive.
He's never seen anything like Trump's numbers because Enten is all of 27.

I have. He was called Richard Nixon. I dare say he was far more hated than George McGovern.

Nixon took 49 states -- including McGovern's home state. It was a 520-17 shellacking.

Why? Because McGovern was a pussycat and Nixon was a lion.

Krauthammer called Trump a strongman for a while and this bothered me because I thought of Mussolini. But upon further consideration, I realized that his strength is in standing up for our principles and our nation.

Enten's article went on and on about favorability and unfavorability using a lot of numbers, but he missed the most important detail: In six of our last eight elections, the candidate with the highest unfavorability rating won.

10 comments:

  1. Ive been telling my friends and family for a few months -- Trump is Nixon without the insecurity, paranoia, negativity, and big new liberal regulatory programs. Could be worse. And our conservative doctrinaires should remember: First Nixon, then Reagan.

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    1. Not so sure about the insecurity or paranoia, but 2 out of four is better than Hillary's 0 for four.

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  2. It seems that all the "right" people hate him and many/most of the people who like him are the "not-right" people...of whom there are so many more.

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  3. That was one of the Cruzzers' big talking points - Trump's negatives.

    Of course, Ned Silver and his boys thought Trump would fade with last year's Fall.

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  4. Mack was talking about an absolute ruler, the only type at the time. But being feared gets you more air time these days so that is positive and in fact has been the source of Trumps free media. The Devil always commands more attention than his opponents.
    But Trump has to become more likeable as time goes on so people will not do what Nixon said they always do when they vote , namely vote against rather than for. And I think he will become so because in fact he is likeable. And that is really what the never crowd and their allies among the Democrats fear most. He is not one of the Medici like, say ,Cruz.

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  5. Depends on the situation you're in.

    If it's bonus time after a great year of business, you want a real ol' doting uncle type of boss in charge of the divvying up.

    If you're manning Checkpoint Charlie-Foxtrot, and half the Third World is bearing down on you and your buddies, you want the meanest S.O.B. on the post in charge.

    Which of the two scenarios is the closest match to 2016, do you think?

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    Replies
    1. Couldn't have said it better, Dave. We need Clint Eastwood, not Tina Fey.

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  6. If you can predict the results of the November presidential election right now, in May...


    could you do me a favor and tell me which teams will be facing off in the World Series?

    - Mikey NTH

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    Replies
    1. Sure, bro! Cubs - Red Sox. Chicago in 5. They got WAY too many studs on that team this year. And I'm a Natties fan, but ya gotta face reality, ya know?

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