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Sunday, May 22, 2016

For the first time, Trump now leads the average of national polls

Remember how Charles Krauthammer said if Trump won the nomination he could lose like Goldwater? National polls today confirm that once again, Krauthammer may have gotten Trump's chances wrong again.

The Real Clear Politics Average of national polls shows Trump up 0.4 points over Hillary Clinton.

The score is Trump 44.0, Clinton 43.6.

Bernie Sanders leads Trump by something or another. I don't care.

OK, OK, OK. It is a 11.2-point lead, 50.6 to 39.4.


The real matchup is Trump-Clinton:

The ABC/Washington Post Poll taken May 16-19 of 829 registered voters has Trump up by two 46-44.

The Rasmussen Poll taken May 17-18 of 1,000 likely voters has Trump up by five 42-37.

The Fox News Poll taken May 14-17 of 1,021 registered voters has Trump up by three 45-39.

The CBS/New York Times Poll taken May 13-17 of 1,109 registered voters has Trump down by six 41-47.

The Graves Poll taken May 10 of 1,574 registered voters has Trump down by two 46-48.

On December 12, Krauthammer said: "I think quite reasonably the Republicans think that if Trump is the nominee, this would be a Goldwater scenario all over again. They could be wrong. But it’s a reasonable idea. If you think so, you would want to get a consensus candidate. I don’t see it as being illegitimate. But it would be a long shot. Because if you go in with a big plurality, it will look as if it’s being stolen from you."

That was reasonable.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post buried the lead in its report of its own poll, headlining the story: "Poll: Election 2016 shapes up as a contest of negatives."

We already knew that. What we did not know is that Trump climbed from 9 points down in the ABC/Post poll in March to a 2-point lead -- an 11-point swing in two months.

That was reported in the fifth paragraph.

Yes, his led is in the margin of error, but Clinton was supposed to sweep him in November. Maybe she will. Maybe it is 1964 and she is LBJ's illegitimate daughter. We could call her Hillary Bird.

If she gets by Bernie first.

Coming in June -- "Trump the Press: Don Surber's take on how the pundits blew the 2016 Republican race."


  1. http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/21/retired-air-force-general-obama-unilaterally-disarmed-america-video/#ixzz49O3y7moN
    General McInerney on out big military
    decline-and how Hillary was a big part of that.

  2. Trump's leading? OH, the HORROR! The horror...

  3. The WaPo poll was registered, not likely voters, but that whole business of Bernie leading Trump strikes me as very suspect.

    If he's already giving Hillary fits, why would Bernie do better, or is it just a case, like ted, of people don't know him.


    1. Trump has been dropping depth charges on Hillary's submerged background, forcing the MSM to face the issues. He hasn't started on Bernie because he doesn't need to.

      If and when the time comes, all he has to do is show pictures of the riots and empty supermarkets in Venezuela. Bernie held their economy up as his ideal.

  4. I think we are seeing the point where the trend lines cross and Trump has a net plus.

  5. This will cause Hill to hit the bottle even harder. Look for her to fall down again sometime soon. Shortly after that, and her sudden withdrawal from the race...it's Gropin Joe Biden! Woo HOO! His campaign hat will read, Make America Grope Again...

  6. 'she is LBJ's illegitimate daughter' ...too funny Don, but then again it gives one pause for reflection. The good lord knows they both have enough ugly skeletons in their closets.

    I'll up you one by suggesting that William Jefferson could be lbj's illegitimate son!

    That could conceivably explain a lot of things.

    Sam C

    1. A number of years ago, spymaster author Charles McCarry wrote a work of fiction called "Lucky Bastard".

      It had the usual disclaimer about how any resemblance to actual personages, living or dead, is coincidental, but the Bill Clinton character, i.e., the "lucky bastard", +was possibly JFK's illegitimate son (the possibility is a minor unresolved mystery in the novel).

  7. Don, we have to agree to disagree about Trump. You love him, I think he's a snake oil salesman. But know this - these polls mean squat. You, a recovering Democrat, for like an alcoholic no Democrat is never truly cured ;-), should know that after the conventions, Democrats, as they always do will close ranks behind Hillary. They will vote for the party's chosen even if it is a yaller dog, or a syphilitic ho. That RCP average accounts for 87.6% of the total surveyed. I predict that after the conventions, Hillary will assume an instant 5% to 10% lead in the polls, unless Lynch improbably issues an indictment before then.

    Look, I am going to vote for the slimy SOB even though I'll have to take a puke bucket to the polls to do it. But let's stop having orgasms about what, at this stage of the game, are totally meaningless polls.

    1. "I am going to vote for the slimy SOB even though I'll have to take a puke bucket to the polls to do it."

      that's the way to do it... :)

    2. I am sick of puke buckets. I will vote repub dpwn ballot, and libertarian for prez. The stupidity of the primary voters that stuck us with Trump will not be rewarded by me.

  8. Expect Hillary to get indicted as her poll levels tank against Trump. The Dems will pull a switcheroo at the last moment to find a more competitive candidate.

    1. Beat me to it. This poll may be the signal to the Obama administration that it's time to stop protecting Hillary and line up a Democrat white horse for the convention.
      As a sop to poor Hillary, cancel Lindsey Lohans probation and assign her to Hillary's cell for a consolation prize.

    2. that may be the only way the Dems get to the presidency. My mom, a blue card carrying Democrat, says that Hilary "should be taking care of her grandchild" and rather have Sanders.

  9. Some of this quick closure may be because Mr. Trump is consolidating the Republicans and other supporters, but Mrs. Clinton is still fighting Sen Sanders and continues to have troubles regarding emails and Benghazi. Assuming she does get the nomination and starts consolidating the left and Democrats, she should get a bounce. Then the fight becomes serious, health care premiums become an issue in October, and other unforeseen things may arise.

    As I like to refer to it: Mr. rude, crude plutocrat vs. Mrs. felony.

    1. Yes, Trumps rise began about a week after his opponents gave up. Hillary is likely to get a similar rise when Bernie gives up. But if she does not, it will be trouble for her.

  10. I saw a bumper sticker the other day: My dog is a Republican. Well, the correct answer is: My ass is a Democrat. And I'd vote for my dog over my ass any day. So there.

  11. America's finest.

  12. Clip these polls and use them to wipe your tears in November when HRC wins in a landslide.

  13. Don, Hillary's super delegates could jump ship as they did in 2008. Of course, the formidable Ted Kennedy engineered that. But it did happen once. Could happen again.