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Saturday, May 14, 2016

Experts who said Trump would not be the nominee say he won't be president

The Washington Examiner story amused me: "Election gurus: Trump will lose like Romney lost."

Based on current surveys, several polling organizations say they can project that Trump is already down by more than 100 electoral votes. The Cook Political Report, for example, has Clinton leading 304-190, with 44 electoral college votes up for grabs.
From Brainiac Cook on July 15, 2015:
I promised myself that I would not write about Donald Trump. There is approximately zero percent chance that he will be the GOP nominee. Moreover, the odds are incredibly small that his candidacy survives much into 2016. He’s a blowhard who is desperate for attention and will do anything to get it. But, like the oppressive humidity of a DC summer, he has become unavoidable. I am asked about Trump more than Hillary, Jeb or Obama – combined. As such – sigh – here’s my take on what his rise in the polls means – and what it doesn’t.
Let's see. Everyone is talking about Trump and none of the rest.

That's some expertise there. Real insightful.

Oh and his list of reasons Trump was doomed -- doomed -- was long and boring. But if you want to read it, knock yourself out.

While the story said gurus, it only listed Cook. 

I did a little digging. Two weeks ago, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (he's on TV a lot but I have yet to see the crystal ball) said: "Our views on the Electoral College outcome of a Clinton-Trump match-up haven’t changed since we published our Trumpmare map a month ago. If anything, we wonder whether our total of 347 EVs for Clinton to 191 EVs for Trump is too generous to the GOP."

On June 18, 2015, Larry and His One Ball ranked Trump 15th among 18 candidates (Bob Ehrlich was supposed to run but didn't). Sayeth Sabato
In his place amongst the “Gadflies and Golden Oldies” goes businessman Donald Trump, who announced for president on Tuesday in a rambling speech.
The key thing to note about Trump is that he is deeply unpopular both nationally and with Republicans. Quinnipiac University recently found him with a weak 34% favorable/52% unfavorable rating nationally among Republicans. A Monmouth University poll released earlier this week was even worse: 20% favorable and 55% unfavorable. That -35 point favorability gap was far worse than any other Republican, dwarfing that of even Graham and Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), who are also unpopular with Republicans. Few give those two much chance of winning the nomination, and Trump’s odds are as bad and probably worse.
Team Trump argues that with such a big field, Trump has enough niche support that he can get some traction in the early states and grow from there. It’s not impossible that Trump will make some noise, and he is such an over-sized (some would say outrageous) personality that he’s guaranteed to generate coverage, perhaps at the expense of other GOP candidates. This may be true particularly in the coming dog days of a summer campaign, when Trump’s rhetorical bomb-throwing will fill column inches and airtime. While unpopular, Trump is well-known, and that name ID could keep him in the top 10 of national polling by the time of the first Republican debate in Cleveland on Aug. 6 — a ticket to the stage and a huge TV audience. (Trump is now at about 4% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, and no. 9 overall in the GOP field.)
However, it should not shock anyone if Trump’s dalliance with the 2016 campaign turns out to be brief. The billionaire could be long gone from the race by the time the first votes are cast in Iowa and New Hampshire, if his efforts are not bearing fruit and he wants to preserve The Apprentice. Trump has a well-earned reputation as a national novelty act that he will have to overcome if he wants to be taken seriously by both the press and the voters.
Trump mattered so little that he got the biggest hunk of the article (351 of the 2,021 words).

Trump had been in the race three whole days.

But this time it is different. This time he is up against a beauty queen whom everybody loves and is universally trusted.

8 comments:

  1. "Let's see. Everyone is talking about Trump and none of the" Is "rest" the word left off, or should there have been more?

    "But this time it is different. This time he is up against a beauty queen whom everybody loves and is universally trusted." DANG! That's funny!

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  2. Experts also said that Leicester City was a 5000-1 bet to win the English Premiere League. Um, how'd that turn out fer ya, experts?

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  3. Sabato: "...if he wants to be taken seriously by both the press and the voters."

    (and we all know that the voters don't matter, just the PRESS. >smirk<.

    Shakespeare: What fools these Mortals be.

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  4. When will folks learn that it's not the polls of voters' intentions that predict election results, but rather those of their expectations?

    http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/11/01-voter-expectations-wolfers

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    Replies
    1. Bad news if that's true, since Hillary always seems to be a huge betting favorite.

      I don't think the prognostications of those who are laying money on the outcome has deviated significantly from having her as an odds-on favorite... though I would have supposed that gamblers are as fallible as pollsters, especially when there is a candidate with significant hidden support.

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    2. Bad news if that's true, since Hillary always seems to be a huge betting favorite.

      I don't think the prognostications of those who are laying money on the outcome has deviated significantly from having her as an odds-on favorite... though I would have supposed that gamblers are as fallible as pollsters, especially when there is a candidate with significant hidden support.

      Delete
  5. I don't see how he can possibly lose. But then I didn't think anyone in their right mind would give Obama a second go.

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