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Monday, May 09, 2016

Does Trump need Never Trump?

I am being polite in the headline, which should read, "Trump does not need Never Trump." This follows up my Saturday post, "Never Trump will never hurt Trump." Trigger warning: There is math in that post.

Trump is running as a third-party candidate. He got what he wanted from the Republican Party: Ballot access in all 50 states and DC. Thank you very much. Now go away and let Trump and his supporters -- who will reach a majority by Cleveland -- change the course of the party and nation. The new party mandate is Make America Great Again. We will.

If he learned anything from Colorado, Trump will appoint the 538 electors in the Electoral College on the Republican slates to avoid any nasty "faithless elector" who could (the odds are long) toss the election into the House of Representatives, where who knows what would happen.

His game plan is to win two-thirds of the Republican vote, two-thirds of the independent vote, and one-third of the Democratic vote. That would give him a 55%-44% landslide.

That's his plan. The reality is he will do better among Republicans and not meet those benchmarks among independents and Democrats. But we shall see. Those saying Clinton will schlong him also told us last year that Trump had no chance in hell of winning the nomination. Voters said otherwise.

The Republican Party belongs to Trump and his supporters now. He is Reagan to the Never Trump crowd's Ford. They can claim to be the only conservatives left till all the gills fall off all the fish, but now they are now the Republicans In Name Only. Trump fixed it to where he does not need the endorsement of Romney or the Bush dynasty. In fact, their endorsements would hurt him by making him seem establishment. He isn't. She is.

Reporters by and large do not get it. And I suspect the Cruz picks in Trump delegate slots will create some childish havoc in Cleveland. Later, tales will arise of how a Republican Congress will thwart him. Yes, just like they stopped Obama.

Next February I expect Trump to deliver the State of the Union with his vice president and the House speaker behind him -- and that speaker will not be Paul Ryan, even if he is re-elected.

My book on the nomination process is due out in June.

14 comments:

  1. He may well do better with Demos and Indies than you think.

    The dispossessed out there are in the tens of millions and cross all lines.

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    1. Trump took a bold step over the weekend toward appealing to Dems, saying his tax plan would most likely include higher taxation of the rich than originally stated and his willingness to see the minimum wage rate be raised. That will show those GOPe naysayers.

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    2. This is another way of saying, "Here's my opening position", as the rest of the interview plainly indicated.

      If you can't see that you're not ready for the news Daddy Cruz (y'know, the guy who was really against amnesty even though all the Trump people said he wasn't?) wanted Rubio as his first choice for VP.

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  2. A fish rots from the head down. The stink was getting so bad that The Donald just chopped the head off the fish (GOP). - Elric

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  3. Wow! Don, you've been spot on thus far but I can't help thinking Ryan is feigning loyalty to the 'establishment'? Perhaps he gets on board before Cleveland? That said, I ain't betting against you. Well done!

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    1. He will.

      If he wants any money to run this Fall.

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  4. Wow! Don, you've been spot on thus far but I can't help thinking Ryan is feigning loyalty to the 'establishment'? Perhaps he gets on board before Cleveland? That said, I ain't betting against you. Well done!

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  5. How Gloria Steinem might have put it: "They can claim to be the only conservatives left till fish ride bicycles."

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  6. Re Republican Congress thwarting President Trump. True they are feckless with Obama but that may be because the monied interests who control them are OK with Obama's program. The NeverTrumps may continue to oppose him even when he's in the Oval Office.

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    1. That might be a good way to finally rid Congress of those old crooks and their hangers-on. The American people are galvanizing and will not be happy with attempts to stymie our President on his voter-assigned mission!

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  7. One thing I do see are critics demanding the details of any proposal from Trump, and he isn't giving them out.

    I think that is a good move on his part. First, this is a political campaign and what is needed are broad themes. While all of those fine details may make the pundits and the wonks happy they do not provide anything useful to a candidate. In fact too many details at this stage are damaging because it gives critics something to hammer a candidate with and none of those details are actually going to be relevant next year.

    That last is actually a Second point. No details of any plan are going to survive contact with reality and the political reality a year from now id going to be very different than it is today. The details will need to be worked out when the legislation is being drafted, with the people who are going to be negotiating, based on the political landscape then.

    - Mikey NTH

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    1. Concur! No plan remains unchanged after contact with the enemy.

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    2. We have to pass the bill to see what is in it.

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