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Tuesday, April 05, 2016

Your guide to the Wisconsin Primary



The obsession with the Wisconsin Primary tonight shows the desperation of the cable networks (and the increasingly irrelevant Conservative Commentariat Concentrated in the Capital) to keep alive a Republican nomination process that ended on Super Tuesday. Fox News, CNN and MSNBC are addicted to Donald Trump, as are those who hate him. They are the most likely to tune in, as Trump supporters know they have won and are moving on with their lives.

But hey, I will play along because readers need some guidance to get through the fog of cable news.



1. From Fox News: "Wisconsin Republicans have picked their party’s eventual presidential nominee in every primary since 1968."

That is because the primary comes after the nomination has been decided.

2. From Chuck Todd: "Since Mitt Romney delivered his anti-Trump speech a month ago, the Stop Trump forces haven't been able to beat the real-estate mogul -- outside of Ohio (John Kasich's home state), Idaho, and Utah. So a win in Wisconsin would be a real victory for the #NeverTrump folks."

Actually not. Wisconsin was never a Trump state. Back in December, Nate Silver figured out the separate paths to 1,237 delegates for each candidate. He said Trump needed just 18 of the 42 delegates in Wisconsin, while Cruz needed 33.

But wait, there is more. Jim Hoft at Gateway Pundit just shocked everyone by pointing out that because Trump's real states -- New York, New Jersey and other cosmopolitan places -- vote this month, Cruz will be mathematically eliminated from hitting 1,237 by month's end. That is after Hoft gave Cruz 40 Wisconsin delegates and Trump 2.

3. More from Chuck Todd: "Wisconsin awards 42 delegates, and it's possible that Cruz can win all of them -- given that they're allocated winner-take-all by both statewide vote (15 total delegates) and results in individual congressional districts (three delegates in each of the state's eight districts). So Trump's current lead could shrink from 275 delegates to 233 (if Cruz wins all of the delegates). Or it could shrink to around 260 (if Trump is able to win some of the congressional districts). And in race where EVERY delegate matters, this is important."

What Todd left out that after tonight, there will be 806 delegates left to pick, and Cruz would need to take 533 of the 806 (66 percent) just to tie The Donald.

A split of 403 each with Trump taking only two tonight would give Trump a lead of 1,141 to 906 over Cruz.

Do you think Republicans would get away with denying a man with 46 percent of the delegates the nomination in favor of someone with 37 percent?

The real story is that Trump is within single digits in the polls (which again I still do not trust given the big misses in Iowa and Michigan) despite sailing into the headwinds of unfavorable demographics and opposition by Governor Scott Walker and the rest of the Republican Party.

I cannot emphasize this enough: Trump is winning despite himself because the message -- not the messenger -- is of primary importance this year. Supporters do delight that Trump is entertaining and bombastic. Few things are as satisfying as flipping the bird. But the rebels won the nomination because their message is clear: Make America Great Again.

On Wisconsin, my prediction is: Cable news will drag this on because they need the ratings. The Panama Papers scandal doesn't attract eyeballs because most normal people think the Panama Papers are used to smoke Panama Red. But like Watergate, it could develop into a story.

Till then, cable news is Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump.

14 comments:

  1. Nicely done.

    It seems to me the polls (taken as a group) would tend to indicate Cruz has been slipping for a week, mostly because the Lewandowski thing blew up in everybody's faces.

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  2. Thanks. As for Cruz, you left out the part where he's boring as hell. The Scruz scandal actually made him a little interesting.

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    1. Yes, and I even supported him for quite a while. Worse, he seems toxic, somehow, to those not already disposed to like him. The opposite of charismatic.

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    2. Yes, and I even supported him for quite a while. Worse, he seems toxic, somehow, to those not already disposed to like him. The opposite of charismatic.

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    3. I was a Cruz guy too. Never again.

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  3. Steve in GreensboroApril 5, 2016 at 8:04 PM

    I second Edutcher's comment. Nice essay.

    When this all started, I was indifferent between Cruz and Trump. Either would have been OK with me. Both seemed to represent the "burn down the GOPe" faction.

    But the more I have seen of Cruz, the less I like him. He seems sleazy. Plus the longer he carries on his campaign, the more his efforts seem to aid the GOPe.

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  4. Sorry to be the pig at the picnic here, but although I agree that Cruz will not get 1237 delegates before the Convention, tonight means that Trump will be very likely to fall short of 1237 too. And if Trump does not have a majority of delegates on the 1st ballot, the nomination will be taken from him. (And properly so, in my opinion.)

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    1. The state's only got 42 delegates and Trump will get some.

      This was a lousy hill for Daddy Cruz to die on.

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    2. True--it looks (as of now) as if it will be 36-6 in delegate count. But based on what we foresee with the remaining states, Trump will fall short of 1237 by June. So I wouldn't say Cruz died on this hill.

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    3. Suppose Trump is 100 short and Cruz is 500 short. So the answer is to spit in the voters faces and nominate somebody other than Trump?

      Voters well understand "majority rules", and no lawyer-speak word games will be acceptable to them. All this prattling about "well Trump only got 1200 instead of 1237, so now we insiders get to pick whoever WE want" won't fly.

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  5. Four straight losses for Donald. Get ready for a contested convention.

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  6. "The real story is that Trump is within single digits in the polls (which again I still do not trust given the big misses in Iowa and Michigan) despite sailing into the headwinds of unfavorable demographics and opposition by Governor Scott Walker and the rest of the Republican Party." I thought Walker endorsed Trump. I've read that Trump dissed Walker, and that can/will/did hurt himself.

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  7. No no no Don. The talking heads have all decreed that if Trump doesn't win WI he is done, finished, kaput, toast, history, an also ran, yesterday's news etc. His bubble will have burst. He will have been a flash in the pan.

    So when will they stop talking about him?

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    Replies
    1. Talking heads never said that if Trump loses WI, he is done. They said it means a contested GOP convention which will only be made worse in that it is being held in the most incompetent city in America.
      A contested convention is coming because "math called." Trump has to win 70-percent plus of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination prior to convention.

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