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Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Trump is well on his way to 1,378 delegates

Forget what you are reading elsewhere. Donald Trump is well on his way not just to 1,237 delegates but to 1,378. I base this on my post after Wisconsin in which I ran the numbers state-by-state on the Real Clear Politics delegate calculator.

Using the national poll as the guide, on Saturday, April 16, 2016, the projection was Trump would:
Win 69 of 95 delegates in New York.
Win 22 of 28 in Connecticut.
Win 16 of 16 in Delaware.
Win 32 of 38 in Maryland.
Win 56 of 71 in Pennsylvania.
Win 14 of 19 in Rhode Island.
Win 48 of 57 in Indiana.
Win 36 of 36 in Nebraska.
Win 25 of 34 in West Virginia.
Win 20 of 28 in Oregon.
Win 32 of 44 in Washington.
Win 127 of 172 in California.
Win 27 of 27 in Montana.
Win 51 of 51 in New Jersey.
Win 19 of 24 in New Mexico.
Win 29 of 29 in South Dakota.
At the time, people asked what I was smoking.

The results on Tuesday are in keeping with those projections. The projection was he would pick up 209 delegates in the April 19 and 26 primaries. He picked up 196 with 54 delegates in Pennsylvania to divvy up. He'll easily get 13 of them.

Trump has 950 delegates. He needs 51% of the remaining delegates to win. However, when you include the 54 delegates in Pennsylvania yet to be sorted out, Trump needs but 46% of them and the remaining delegates.

In that April 16 post, I wrote, "Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Montana seem to be in Cruz country. If Trump gets shut out in those states, he is down to 1,238."

But polls now show Trump has a lead in Indiana. And he beat the polls in New York and again on Tuesday night.

From Chuck Todd last night:
I had an operative swear to me about a month ago, we can hold Trump under 1,000 delegates by the end of this primary season. My gosh, he could be at 1,000 by the middle of May. We're already at 900 now after what we've projected the delegates we've awarded him just based on the projection we've made in three primary states. He could get close to 950. You know, I'm just trying to understand how Indiana is going to make up all that ground. Trump having now not just a narrow path, but a clear path to this nomination if these numbers are holding.
Indeed, Trump is at 950 delegates this morning, not counting the results of the 54 congressional district delegates in Pennsylvania. At least a third will vote for Trump on the first ballot.

Trump has won 26 states and Northern Mariana. That's a majority. Cruz has 11.

It is over. But cable news keeps it alive because Trump means ratings and ratings mean subscriber fees and advertising.

14 comments:

  1. So who are you supporting for the WV governor? Heh.

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  2. LOL. Seriously, I have not decided. Bill Cole likely

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    1. You mean Establishment Bill Cole, the candidate with the most Super PAC contributions; the candidate with $500 grand backing from the Koch brothers; the politician who cant get his own party in line to pass a budget while setting a record for vetos with most being on technicalities from shoddy work. That Bill Cole who is taking his marching orders from D.C. lobbyists? Wow!
      Can't believe you are not supporting Donald Trump's mirror image in Jim Justice.
      So it's time for Trump to kick out the D.C Establishment and Elite but okay for said Establishment and Elite to still govern W.Va.?

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    2. The Koch brothers...hahaha! But Soros and Steyer and, in Michael Savage's great line, Katzenberg Matzenberg Ratzenberg, they're all just fine citizens supporting a cause, right? You tool. You utterly pathetic tool.

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    3. z, that should be "You utterly pathetic no-name tool."

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    4. I didn't mean for you to take that comment seriously. I was making fun of Nonnyass.

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    5. Glad you are amused non-subscriber to the Tea Party. I quit making replies to your comments cause to shred them up became so darn easy.

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    6. So why reply to this one? I gave you the most appropriate moniker you've ever had. Your parents should have named you that.

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    7. Is that the best you got? Sad.

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  3. Just a reminder: George Soros was the little rat that went around with the Gestapo, "outing" many of his jewish neighbors so as to send them off to the death camps.

    He made his billions by manipulating the currencies of western countries - notably the UK - it is apparent that he hates Western Civilization: which is You & Me.

    And he owns Hillary lock, stock & barrel.

    An orange jumpsuit is the least he deserves.

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    1. Soros is a nasty piece of work, all right. I wonder how the Nazi collaborator managed to escape retribution. I also wonder why we would ever let him move to the U.S. - Elric

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    2. I can see Werner Von Braun, maybe. He helped our missile and space program. But Soros... Just because he has money? He is dedicated to toppling our American way of life as we know (knew) it. He is despicable. - Elric

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  4. The #NeverTrump are all in a tizzy because Trump said he he considered himself the presumptive nominee. In a manner, the the #NeverTrump are correct, if we presume such means the fix is in, GOPe candidate, then that Bush fellow was the presumptive nominee.

    Trump is pretty much now the expected nominee in the minds of the voters. And if their expectations are thwarted, there had better be a good tap dance to explain why.

    Oh, and inside baseball that won't translate to the General isn't going to cut it.

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