Using the national poll as the guide, on Saturday, April 16, 2016, the projection was Trump would:
Win 69 of 95 delegates in New York.At the time, people asked what I was smoking.
Win 22 of 28 in Connecticut.
Win 16 of 16 in Delaware.
Win 32 of 38 in Maryland.
Win 56 of 71 in Pennsylvania.
Win 14 of 19 in Rhode Island.
Win 48 of 57 in Indiana.
Win 36 of 36 in Nebraska.
Win 25 of 34 in West Virginia.
Win 20 of 28 in Oregon.
Win 32 of 44 in Washington.
Win 127 of 172 in California.
Win 27 of 27 in Montana.
Win 51 of 51 in New Jersey.
Win 19 of 24 in New Mexico.
Win 29 of 29 in South Dakota.
The results on Tuesday are in keeping with those projections. The projection was he would pick up 209 delegates in the April 19 and 26 primaries. He picked up 196 with 54 delegates in Pennsylvania to divvy up. He'll easily get 13 of them.
Trump has 950 delegates. He needs 51% of the remaining delegates to win. However, when you include the 54 delegates in Pennsylvania yet to be sorted out, Trump needs but 46% of them and the remaining delegates.
In that April 16 post, I wrote, "Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Montana seem to be in Cruz country. If Trump gets shut out in those states, he is down to 1,238."
But polls now show Trump has a lead in Indiana. And he beat the polls in New York and again on Tuesday night.
From Chuck Todd last night:
I had an operative swear to me about a month ago, we can hold Trump under 1,000 delegates by the end of this primary season. My gosh, he could be at 1,000 by the middle of May. We're already at 900 now after what we've projected the delegates we've awarded him just based on the projection we've made in three primary states. He could get close to 950. You know, I'm just trying to understand how Indiana is going to make up all that ground. Trump having now not just a narrow path, but a clear path to this nomination if these numbers are holding.Indeed, Trump is at 950 delegates this morning, not counting the results of the 54 congressional district delegates in Pennsylvania. At least a third will vote for Trump on the first ballot.
Trump has won 26 states and Northern Mariana. That's a majority. Cruz has 11.
It is over. But cable news keeps it alive because Trump means ratings and ratings mean subscriber fees and advertising.