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Saturday, April 02, 2016

The math is worse for Cruz than you think

With a commanding 289-delegate lead, Trump is on pace to have a nearly 400-delegate lead in Cleveland and is likely to have 1,200 of the 1,237 needed for an indisputable victory,  according to FiveThirtyEight Politics.

Trump has 752 delegates and Cruz has 463. But the lead is even wider than it appears to be.

Economist Nate Silver, who started the site eight years ago, for this race figured out the path to the nomination individually for each candidate, state by state. For example, Trump is expected to do better in New York than Cruz, who was expected to do better than Trump in Texas. It is an interesting theory

At this point, Trump needed to be at 789 delegates. He is at 752. So he is on pace for 1,200 delegates.

But Cruz needed to be at 882 delegates. He is at 463. So he is on pace for 818 delegates.

How does this pace thing work? According to Silver, Trump needs only 18 of the 42 delegates from Wisconsin. Cruz needs 33. Kasich needs 39. In other words, Wisconsin was never a Trump state, according to Silver.

But even if Cruz takes all 42 delegates, he will still be 247 delegates behind Trump with fewer opportunities to catch up as the month will end with primaries in Trump's home state of New York and Trump friendly states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

Silver's mathematical formulation is interesting. For example, Cruz took 12 delegates in Alaska and Trump took 11. But Cruz merely kept pace in that state, while Trump exceeded his goal by two delegates.

Iowa was even better. Cruz won with eight delegates. Trump got seven. But both men were behind their pace; Trump by three and Cruz by five.

The idea that you can add all the non-Trump delegates together to deny him the nomination if he chugs into Cleveland with 1,000 or more delegates and a 200-delegate lead is silly. And Trump is on pace to exceed both benchmarks.

But hey, hold your breath until Trump drops out.


  1. I wouldn't take Ned Silver's word for very much. And that's not counting the fact he's an economist.

    The NeverTrump crowd has (I think) mistakenly turned WI into a do-or-die proposition since it isn't a true winner-take-all state. Trump can get delegates even if Cruz has a blowout - which would not appear the case - both are campaigning there right up to the end.

    PPP may turn out to be right, after all.

  2. It all turns on how many delegates Cruz can "steal" from Trump before the convention. There are a lot of "elites" that are pushing for delegates to change their minds.

    1. Cruz needs to understand that if he is successful in stealing enough delegates to deny Trump the first ballot nomination and "open" the convention the dark forces behind the RNC will never nominate him. They will turn to another of their anointed losers.

  3. They say Trump never wanted to win. I did feel early on that Trump wanted to be kingmaker more than the nominee. But now, it is a matter of principle to beat the smug GOPers.

    But this may mean that Trump is only interested in one term. One term where he won't be limited by a desire for a second term. Now that would be disruptive. Trump burns some DC chateaus and knocks over a lot rice bowls, then the parties fight it out in the new paradigm.

    BTW, both parties are terrified of Trump having the power each celebrated their guy usurping. So, a Trump in the White House may see an animated Congress trying to restore what was suppose to be the first branch of government.

    BTW, remember how nice it was in the country when the new Republican Congress under Gingrich was fighting things out with Bill Clinton. DC was consumed with office politics and the country prospered.

    1. The country prospered for a while with Newt as speaker but the dark forces behind the GOPe decided to jettison Newt because he started getting a big head. Since then, up until Ryan, we've had a series of pathetic speakers including a child molester and a drunk. Ryan may also be getting a big head, so he may not last long.

    2. And the budget was balanced.

    3. And the budget was balanced.

  4. My take on it all is that Trump is used to heading an organization - and getting things done.

    His presidency represents the only chance for a "Reset" in Washington - which is desperately needed.

  5. How many delegates does TRUMP actually have?I've seen 723, 732, 740 and this article says 752. Who is right and what is it, really?