With a commanding 289-delegate lead, Trump is on pace to have a nearly 400-delegate lead in Cleveland and is likely to have 1,200 of the 1,237 needed for an indisputable victory, according to FiveThirtyEight Politics.
Trump has 752 delegates and Cruz has 463. But the lead is even wider than it appears to be.
Economist Nate Silver, who started the site eight years ago, for this race figured out the path to the nomination individually for each candidate, state by state. For example, Trump is expected to do better in New York than Cruz, who was expected to do better than Trump in Texas. It is an interesting theory
At this point, Trump needed to be at 789 delegates. He is at 752. So he is on pace for 1,200 delegates.
But Cruz needed to be at 882 delegates. He is at 463. So he is on pace for 818 delegates.
How does this pace thing work? According to Silver, Trump needs only 18 of the 42 delegates from Wisconsin. Cruz needs 33. Kasich needs 39. In other words, Wisconsin was never a Trump state, according to Silver.
But even if Cruz takes all 42 delegates, he will still be 247 delegates behind Trump with fewer opportunities to catch up as the month will end with primaries in Trump's home state of New York and Trump friendly states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.
Silver's mathematical formulation is interesting. For example, Cruz took 12 delegates in Alaska and Trump took 11. But Cruz merely kept pace in that state, while Trump exceeded his goal by two delegates.
Iowa was even better. Cruz won with eight delegates. Trump got seven. But both men were behind their pace; Trump by three and Cruz by five.
The idea that you can add all the non-Trump delegates together to deny him the nomination if he chugs into Cleveland with 1,000 or more delegates and a 200-delegate lead is silly. And Trump is on pace to exceed both benchmarks.
But hey, hold your breath until Trump drops out.