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Saturday, April 30, 2016

Jonah Goldberg is right

Jonah Goldberg at National Review has a pretty good yarn today, "If the Donald Loses in November, It Won’t Be #NeverTrump That’s to Blame."

My fact checker says that Goldberg is absolutely correct. Any loss is on Trump, not the National Review and all those other insiders.

From Goldberg:
I’ll make one last point on all this. I think it’s fascinating how so many people are already pre-blaming a Trump loss on the #NeverTrumpers. My old friend John Nolte seems blinded with rage at all of us, tweeting, “If Trump loses to Hillary . . . I will forever blame #NeverTrump.” Herman Cain is on Fox every five minutes ranting and bullying Trump opponents as fools and de facto Hillary supporters. I am beset by Lilliputian trolls on Twitter insisting I am pro-Hillary (a strange case to make if you read my chapter on her in Liberal Fascism — or quite literally anything I've ever written about her).
Now of course Cain is not on Fox News every five minutes any more than Goldberg is. And his column contains annoying butt hurt and CYA that turns me off.

But his main point, that Never Trump cannot hurt The Donald, is valid. Hell, they could not stop him in the primaries when their size was was proportionally much larger than it will be in November. Like the Japanese soldiers stranded on those islands after World War II, there are not enough Never Trump voters worth worrying about. Unless they vote for Hillary Clinton out of spite, they do not matter.

This is not to say that the National Review, the Weekly Standards and all the little tax-exempt think tanks their contributors work for made a mistake in melodramatically standing athwart history. No, it was great branding that should knock down bigger checks from donors. Bill Kristol should cash in with his next books. I suggest "Athwart History."

That does not mean they are insincere in their beliefs. I believe that they really do think he is unpresidential.

But there are marketing opportunities and I say Cruz will do quite well next year.

I remember the Goldwater Conservatives, who were stereotyped as little old ladies in tennis shoes when I was a child. I imagine a post-general election Cruz working that crowd like Oliver North worked a similar crowd in the 1980s and 1990s. It's a good life. Harold Stassen (whom I interviewed in 1984) was still working his near miss in the 1948 presidential race decades later. Heck, John Edwards got Bunny Melton to pay off his mistress.

So as a marketing tool, Never Trump rocks.

As a political force, Never Trump is non-existent. Cruz lawyered a win in Colorado and Scott Walker handed him a win in Wisconsin without any help from Never Trump.

Looking to November in April, I do not feel as confident as I did about November 2010 in April 2010. But I do know Cruz could not defeat Clinton, because he could not beat Trump. But that does not mean Cruz won't milk that storyline for the rest of his life.

21 comments:

  1. Maybe so, maybe no. I am not knowing.

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  2. "...insisting I am pro-Hillary (a strange case to make if you read my chapter on her in Liberal Fascism — or quite literally anything I've ever written about her)."

    Yeah, what have you done for me lately, Goldberg. There have been probably 10 anti-Trump articles on NRO to every Hillary article during this primary cycle. And Hillary has enough real history to flood the pages of any publication for months without ever touching on the same scandal twice. But no, it's all "Trump is vulgar" written and rewritten, barely changing the fonts.

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  3. Some will stay home.

    Most will realize if Trump goes under, he takes the Senate, and maybe the House, with him.

    Hillary is eminently beatable, the Demos in Congress less so since many of the Whigs betrayed their trust.

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    Replies
    1. Correct. If Trump is nominee senate is gone to DEM's. House is safer but at least 20+ seats will go DEM.

      Delete
  4. If Trump gets elected I expect the big donors to the think tanks to realize that they've been wasting money for decades and the think tanks will have to scale back and begin relying on small donations as they did moreso in the past, which means that they will be more responsive to the public.

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  5. Think tanks are useless,at least Conservative ones are. They preach to the choir when they should be out in the wild proselytizing to the Liberal heathen to convert them to Conservatism. Have they ever developed policies that help Conservative candidates win elections? If they are so busy "thinking," what are they thinking about?

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  6. Any November Trump loss is not on #NeverTrump?

    That sounds correct. Since #Never Trump couldn't even stop Trump in the Republican Party, they cannot be blamed for not stopping him in an even larger election.

    BTW - as a Cruz supporter I have thought of #NeverTrump as a pathetic useless form of self-righteous virtue signalling. None of them ever addressed the reasons why Donald Trump took off as a candidate (the US government ought to be more concerned about the welfare of US citizens than the welfare of foreigners) and instead seemed to act like "Donald Trump insults people and his supporters are also insulting and rude - let's be rude right back - that'll show them!"

    So no - pathetic and ineffectual on a small scale, Jonah, becomes even more pathetic and ineffectual when the game board gets big.

    Gah! I support Cruz and I end up defending Trump - explaining Trump - because all of his detractors are so far off target (to me) that they only help him!

    Hello! He is not an imbecile! Address the reasons why he shot to the front of the pack and sent all of the professionals* packing! Don't say Trumpkin and dismiss it because that does nothing!

    Gah!

    - Mikey NTH

    *except for Ted Cruz who has a textbook perfect conventional/orthodox campaign going on, and I would really like to see how he put it together starting with the first 'when'.

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  7. I don't mind you being pro-Trump. Everyone is entitled to support whomever they want. I do mind you repeating The Big Lie that Cruz lawyered his way to a win in Colorado. Way too many Coloradans who participated in the Colorado caucuses have pointed out that Trump supporters failed to show up. Colorado Republicans who showed up supported Cruz. About 45,000 of them according to most reports. Including my son, who has lived in Colorado less then two years, but figured out how to participate in the caucuses, and did. For Cruz.

    Repeating a lie doesn't make it true. But repeating it to people who know it's a lie is a great way to ultimately lose their respect.

    BTW, I will vote for Trump if he gets the nomination. Because I'm one of those who would crawl over broken glass to vote for Syd the Syphilitic Camel over Monica Lewinsky's ex-boyfriend's wife. I love in the one upstate congressional district that held Trump to under 50% in the primary. And neither I nor any of my friends have any idea who it was who voted for Kasich. Between the all of us, we don't know a single Kasich voter.

    No one, not Trump, not you, not anyone else, has shown in any way then accusations that Cruz cheated in Colorado, or that the rules were rigged to help Cruz and Cruz alone.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Correct, an opponent's incompetence is not exactly proof of cheating.

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    2. Keep on drinking the Cruz-Aid like the good little cult members you are.

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    3. Not even willing to use a pseudonym, or provide proof that Cruz "stole" Colorado. Because there is no proof. Ah, the old anonymous commenter, brave behind the anonymous shield.

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    4. What Colorado Caucus? the voters were not invited. It is well documented several places about the ballot irregularities that took place, complete with photos and statements.

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  8. I really wish there was an edit button for the misspellings you notice after hitting preview and publish....

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    Replies
    1. Harold, I want that for my mouth...it would be more immediately useful IYKWIMAITTYD.

      :)


      - Mikey NTH

      Delete
  9. Bill Kristol should cash in with his next books. I suggest "Athwart History."


    "Ridiculously Gesturing Futilely at the City Bus" would be more accurate.

    - Mikey NTH

    ReplyDelete
  10. "Goldberg: I’ll make one last point on all this."

    That'll be the day when Goldberg makes "one last point" on Trump.

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  11. And they call Trump a sore loser. - Elric

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  12. Hillary would go ballistic if/when Trump beats her. I DO want to see that.

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    Replies
    1. Oh, my, yes! It would be like that "Downfall" clip about Hitler they're always using.

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  13. What will they do, the NeverTrumpers and GOPe consultants, when Trump is elected president?

    They must and will work actively to prevent that happening.

    Steve in Greensboro

    ReplyDelete