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Saturday, April 16, 2016

Forget 1,237. Trump is on the way to 1,378.

Never Trump is predicated on the belief that they can stop Trump if he has no more than 1,236 delegates when he gets to Cleveland, while Cruz can win with fewer than 800.

This is unlikely, as Trump is well on his way to 1,237. In fact, he could wind up with 1,378.

Real Clear Politics has an interactive delegate counter. Trump has 755 delegates, according to RCP. Using its delegate counter, Trump will:
Win 69 of 95 delegates in New York.
Win 22 of 28 in Connecticut.
Win 16 of 16 in Delaware.
Win 32 of 38 in Maryland.
Win 56 of 71 in Pennsylvania.
Win 14 of 19 in Rhode Island.
Win 48 of 57 in Indiana.
Win 36 of 36 in Nebraska.
Win 25 of 34 in West Virginia.
Win 20 of 28 in Oregon.
Win 32 of 44 in Washington.
Win 127 of 172 in California.
Win 27 of 27 in Montana.
Win 51 of 51 in New Jersey.
Win 19 of 24 in New Mexico.
Win 29 of 29 in South Dakota.
That is a total of 1,378 delegates.

Now that is based on current polling numbers nationally, not by state.

Still, it gives him an outright win with 141 delegates to spare. That is an awful lot of delegates for Cruz to steal.

But Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Montana seem to be in Cruz country. If Trump gets shut out in those states, he is down to 1,238.

And that is assuming this is the best case scenario for Trump.

On thing remains clear: Trump needs 482 delegates with 842 left to choose. That is 57 percent of the remaining delegates.

This model shows him getting 623 delegates, or 74 percent of the remaining delegates.

If Kasich dropped out, Trump would get 656 delegates, or 78 percent of the remaining delegates.

That is using this computer model based on current national polling.

However untrustworthy as a computer model and polling data are, this race was over after Super Tuesday. It is kept alive because it fills dead air on cable news.

UPDATE: The Associated Press also has a path to 1,237.


  1. National polls can be misleading in state primaries, as we know, but, barring another Cruz vote poaching scheme, he should at least get that 1100 (which AFAIK has not been repudiated by the RNC). 1400 or so makes me feel a lot better.

    "Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Montana seem to be in Cruz country"


    Daddy Cruz has only won one state in the Midwest (WI) and none in the Lower Midwest. While the others do seem to have been infiltrated by the kind of delegate poaching we've seen elsewhere, this past week may have soured a lot of people on the Anointed One.

    We'll see.

    1. Trump dissed Scott Walker. Scott's really, Really, REALLY popular in WI. Dems hate his meeses to pieces.

  2. Big D, West By God Virginia will go straight and hard Trump. We've become a big deal! Well, even as a new resident, I knew we would be...that's why I moved here...

  3. It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. Any number of things could happen to undermine any of the candidates, but The Donald has the best trajectory at this point. I think he will hit the bullseye. - Elric

  4. I don't think it's good if Trump gets TOO many votes ... I would't want it to give him a swelled head, or anything.

    Anything a bit over 1237 would be fine with me.

    1. Don't NOBODY want The Donald to have a swelled head.