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Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Why Cruz needs Trump to run as a third-party candidate

The Republican Establishment that picked John McCain and Mitt Romney in the last two elections now is hellbent on nominating Ted Cruz. And the political insiders know they need to do so in a way that really pisses off Donald Trump. They need to win not just ugly, but coyote ugly.



Coyote ugly refers to a being trapped, after a night of drinking, with someone so ugly that you will gnaw off your foot in order to escape the trap. Cruz needs Trump to gnaw off his foot and run as a Third Party candidate in order to win, because Cruz knows he cannot beat Hillary head-on. That is because to most Americans, Cruz comes off as to the right of Santorum and as sleazy Nixon.

Washington conservatives wrongly believe that the voter rebellion applies only to liberals.

No, no, no. Voters are just as displeased with the Republican Party in Washington. There are just as many anti-conservative voters as there are anti-liberal. In fact, any conservatives are anti-conservative for a long list of reasons. One of the chief reasons is the botched appointments to the Supreme Court. Every time Cruz mentions this, he reminds conservative voters how career Washington lifers like Cruz screwed us time after time.

Never Trump won't tell you this but you need to know this: Cruz is just as despised as Trump and Clinton. Consider this poll. This will be a nose-plug election as people hold their nose to vote for the least worse.

In a Hillary-Teddy race, Cruz is dead. His talk about the Constitution will sound like jibber-jabber once the Clintons run him through the wringer. Most voters could not care less if they tried about the Tenth Amendment, and attacks on Common Core come off as anti-education.

I look at the 2012 Electoral College map and see Cruz maybe picking up Wisconsin because of Governor Scott Walker. That would make a 322-216 loss.





This is where Trump comes into play. Cruz wants Trump to run as a Third Party candidate because that is the only way to keep Hillary under 270.

To be sure, a three-way would cost Cruz any chance of gaining any states, and would likely give North Carolina to Hillary.

But Cruz does not care. All he cares about are the states Trump would subtract from Hillary.

She would start out a three-way with the Obama states plus North Carolina, which gives her 347.

If Trump takes New York, Florida, New Jersey and Nevada from Hillary, she would fall to 269, throwing the election into the House of Representatives, where they would vote state by state. Michigan would drop her to 252.

Anything below 270 would throw the election into the House of Representatives to decide, which Cruz has a 99 percent chance of winning.

Even if Democrats controlled Congress and Nancy Pelosi became speaker, Cruz would win because Democratic congressional seats are concentrated in so few states. If the election is thrown into the House, Don Young's single vote in Alaska is equal to all the votes from the 53 congressmen from California.

(I have to stop writing here as I laugh.)

OK, back from my break.

So Honest Ted Cruz's plan is to lose the primaries but win the nomination, then lose the election and win the presidency.

Of course, in a two-way between Hillary and Trump, she is dead because she will not gain even North Carolina, and she would lose all the states Trump takes fom her in a three-way plus Wisconsin.

A three-way is the only real hope Cruz has, because he fails to bring even one Democrat to the party. Trump is bringing in millions of Democrats. You need Democrats to win.

But I doubt Trump will do Cruz any favors. Unless Trump has an overwhelmingly good chance of winning as a Third Party candidate, I doubt he will enter because I doubt he will throw his money away just to stop Cruz.

13 comments:

  1. Have to disagree. The Whigs do want Cruz to neutralize Trump, but no way in Hell are they going to let the Anointed One near the nomination.

    If he's phony enough to double cross his own followers (and we know he is), he'd double cross the McConnell crowd in a heartbeat. Remember, this is a dominionist who marches to a drum that really does say he's anointed for this.

    And keep in mind, this is a guy who turns off people as much as Hillary.

    Here's a comment from another blog from a defiantly Conservative woman you would think would be a perfect match for Cruz:

    Jeebus. I just listened to a few minutes of Cruz on the Hannity radio show. Now, I was a Cruz or Trump guy and switched over to a Trump or Cruz guy and will vote for Cruz in the general if he gets that far, but Sweet Mother of Pearl, whoever invented the phrase "sanctimonious prick" must have been listening to Ted Cruz talk when they had their revelation.

    I do think all those delegates are his leverage in a deal so he doesn't get squeezed between Trump and Ryan.

    We'll see.

    ReplyDelete
  2. If it is Trump vs Hillary, I will vote Johnson, for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Again: #Never Trump=#always Hillary.
    Get it?
    I do not like Trump, but he is lightyears ahead of Hillary. If she isn't indicted.
    TG McCoy

    ReplyDelete
  4. #NeverTrump voters should change their tag to #AlwaysHillary.

    And so should Johnson voters.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Libertarians are closet Democrats. They siphon off R votes by claiming to believe in freedom when they really mean no rules on their behavior.

      Delete
    2. And the potheads still want somebody else to pick up the tab for their Doritos.

      Delete
  5. You know the GOP is circling the drain when a Republican needs democrat votes to win. - Elric

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In the 80s, they were called Reagan Democrats, and it's insurance against the margin of fraud.

      But maybe it's an indication of how much trouble the Demos are in that they can't win without vote fraud.

      Delete
  6. Someone needs to tell Cruz to stop trying to be funny or cute; he needs to just stick to being a capable policy wonk. And Trump needs to stop with the petty insults and the "Lying Ted" crap because he sounds like a snotty 6 year-old who needs his ass whipped. Stick to your ideas and being the turd in the punch bowl to political correctness, Donald.

    I've been amazed at all the in-fighting. It's been easy though because I have no emotional investment in either Donald or Ted beyond their abilities (together, or separately) to beat the snot out of the collectivists in the general election.

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  7. The image of Hillary in an electoral menage a trois boggles the mind, a horror that cannot be unseen.

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  8. Very interesting analysis. Very imaginative - and imagination is in very short supply in American politics.

    I still believe the GOPe has a plan to shaft Cruz at the convention, and give us Ryan or some such dreadful candidate ... and Hello, Madame President. Which won't bother the GOPe at all. Hillary will be easy for them to "work with"; all they'll have to do to get what they want from her is make a suitable donation to the Clinton Crime Syndicate Fund ... and they're not spending their own money, anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I really liked an article you wrote. Would you be OK if I shared one of your articles with the WriterBeat.com community? I can provide more information about Writer Beat or answer any question, but better than anything I can say in words, please take a look at the site.

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    Autumn

    ReplyDelete
  10. I really liked an article you wrote. Would you be OK if I shared one of your articles with the WriterBeat.com community? I can provide more information about Writer Beat or answer any question, but better than anything I can say in words, please take a look at the site.

    Does Writer Beat look like the type of place you'd like to see your work cross-posted?

    If yes just give me an "OK": and I'll handle the rest.

    Autumn

    ReplyDelete