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Wednesday, March 09, 2016

Open primaries show Trump can win in November

Hawaii, Michigan, Mississippi -- the Trumpathon continues.

Cable news outlets are pretending that his 15 states to 8 shellacking of Cruz is still too close to call. They need the viewers. And Republican shysters keep fleecing the Donor Class. They need money. But voters hold the Trump Card, and they are playing it.

Some Republicans are whining that open primaries in which independents and even -- good Lord -- Democrats may vote in Republican primaries are giving Trump an unfair advantage. Why if just Republicans voted in Republican primaries, Cruz would be the nominee.

At the same time, they are saying that Trump has no chance in hell in November but Cruz has this super-duper chance.

Of course this is nonsense.

Trump has a far better chance in November than Cruz.

In fact, Trump already has votes from Democrats.

The Daily Caller reported voting in Democratic primaries is down 32% from 2008, the last time Democrats had a race.

The Republican vote is up 107 percent from 2008.

The same people are voting. Only they switched parties. In part because Obama has flipped huge swaths of the nation Republican

But much of it is because of Trump. He brings in disenchanted Democrats. He gives voters hope.

He took Michigan. He took Mississippi. Work on my post-nomination epic continues. He tok Hawaii. Looks like The Donald is moving up publication date.


  1. Trump won friggin' Hawaii last night. That's insane!

  2. Democratic votes are way down in states that enacted Voter ID laws, much more than states that did not. Same states have a corresponding rise in republican voters. Which either means that vote fraud was real or republican voters are smarter than democratic voters in figuring out the new requirements.

  3. Would have liked to see ID, too, but you can't always get what you want.

    Somebody said that once.

  4. Operation Chaos, anyone? Just because the dems come over to your table, doesn't mean they really support the one for whom they're voting. Open primaries are really a bad idea.

    1. I've always been against open primaries because of past experience with crossover manipulation. In the distant past my dad was influential in the local Republican party. He got a guy to run in a state race to beat a socialist Democrat and after he had served a couple of terms he became a "maverick" like McCain. The Democrats stopped running anyone against him, and if he was primaries they would vote in our primary and keep him in office. I came up with the idea of running someone without prior affiliation in the Democrat primary to make them stay home. The guy they picked was found to violate the residency requirement too late for a substitute, so it looked like he was going to win again. But so many people were disgusted enough by the dude that he got beat in the primary anyway. Then the Democrats named a candidate after the deadline, the state election commission (Democrat dominated) let them get away with it and the seat ended up being held by the Democrats for another ten years until redistricting made it a Republican seat. In this instance I don't think that the same kind of crossover is taking place. Most of the people who would be doing it are voting for Bernie. I think the Trump thing is real.

  5. Democrats who claim that Trump cannot beat Hillary in the general are just whistling past the graveyard. First, Hillary is as unlikable a candidate as Trump: he's coarse, she's condescending. Everyone knows that. Second, the Democrats have to be worried that if Hillary takes the nomination, Bernie's most ardent supporters in the on-going primary elections and caucuses will either stay home on election day or will cross-over to vote Republican in order to spite the Democrat Party. Third, they have to consider the real possibility the DoJ may be forced by circumstances to indict Hillary in the middle of the election campaign or, if the DoJ fails to indict, the FBI director could resign in protest. Either outcome would doom her campaign. Are the Democrats going to bet the Oval Office on the off-chance the FBI clears Hillary and her staff of all wrong-doing prior to the election? All the logic says that behind the scenes the Democrats are making plans in secret to replace Hillary with Joe Biden as their nominee for president.

  6. Don, as you write your book, keep this in mind: Trump's march to Cleveland is going to rival Sherman's march to Savannah...that's how historically monumental his campaign is.