Please purchase "Trump the Press" through Create Space.

The book is on Kindle. Order here.

Monday, March 07, 2016

Delegate count: Trump is ahead of schedule, Cruz way behind

Despite his .053 batting average in winning one of the 19 states, Fritz Rubio (hey, he won Minnesota just like Mondale) is going full Baghdad Bob.

On Sunday, he said in San Juan, Puerto Rico: "This map only gets better for us as we move forward in some of the other states. We're soon gonna be in the winner-take-all process…that's where we feel very confident as we move forward."




I am no fan of Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight Politics, but he figures Trump is 5% ahead of his pace to gather delegates, Cruz is 34% behind his pace and Rubio is 52% behind his pace.

According to Silver, each has his own course to get to 1,237 delegates, the number needed to win.

Silver's site said at this point, Trump should have 374 delegates; he had 391 as of this morning.

Cruz should have 463; he had 305.

Rubio should have 311; he had 148.

For the weekend, all three fell behind their marks. Cruz needed to win 79 (according to Nate Silver's site). He won 68.

Trump needed to win 77. He won 53.

Rubio needed to win 69. He won 36.

So while Rubio is correct in saying Cruz has his best bets behind him and Rubio has his best days ahead, the fact is he has a long way to go and a short time to get there.

From NBC:
Marco Rubio brushed off his disappointing night Saturday after another round of losses and insisted his fortunes would shift on March 15, when states award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis.
"These states have a certain profile that other candidates do better in," he said of Kansas, Kentucky and Louisiana, all of which voted Saturday and went for his opponents, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.
But he framed his losses in all three states — after a three-stop barnstorm of Kansas on Friday — as part of his overall strategy to amass enough delegates to make a play for the nomination in the long run.
"What you need to understand is that all of these states are awarding delegates by proportion. So tonight, we will have more delegates than we did last night."
He also said the states that have yet to vote will be more favorable for him going forward. "This map only gets better for us as we move forward in some of the other states," he said. "We're soon gonna be in the winner-take-all process…that's where we feel very confident as we move forward."
So expect a couple more weeks of Fritz Rubio, until he pancakes in Florida.

Four contests on Tuesday worth a total of 150 delegate. Silver said Trump needs 59 delegates, Cruz needs 63, Rubio needs 61.

6 comments:

  1. Mr. Rubio is beginning to sound desperate. - Elric

    ReplyDelete
  2. Don, you are the best source for truth this year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Two thumbs up on that one, brother.

      Delete
  3. "My plan is to lose the early contests." Doesn't make sense to me, but, what do I know? Only that March 15th can't come fast enough. Four robo calls from gope yesterday. If I was for rubio before that, I would not be now.

    ReplyDelete
  4. "Are you going to try to get off to a fast start?", an enterprising student journalist once asked Leo Durocher before the start of the baseball season

    "No you dumb s***!" answered Durocher. "I'm going to try to lose the first 10 games."

    ReplyDelete