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Sunday, February 21, 2016

Trump made American politics great again

Win or lose in Cleveland, Donald Trump just changed American politics. He won in South Carolina not because he raised the most money (Jeb) or because he had the most endorsements (Rubio) or because had the Evangelical Christian organization (Cruz). Trump won because of the most honorable and most democratic reason:

He had the best message.

That is what our Founding Fathers had in mind when they set up this crazy system we call a Democratic Republic. Candidates would discuss ideas and policies, not whether a man is wearing a toupee, or whether

Trump said he would build The Wall and Make America Great Again.

He also refused to kowtow to the political correct police.

That appalled the Conservative Commentariat in Washington; They are shocked that someone who has not held public office would dare run for president -- and win.

And Trump is winning because he leads. He draws thousands to his rallies. He dares to go where others refused to go: Vermont. People follow him.

He won TV time the old fashioned way, by making news. He didn't buy a lot of air time. He earned it. He also didn't whore himself out to politicians or big donors to get their support. If he needed money, he earned it.

His message resonated among the working class who no longer are working. Not a single other Republican candidate showed they care about the people like Trump did.

Buffoon. Clown car. Hitler. Even ape. Screw the Conservative Commentariat. They are more useless than a screen door on a submarine. You have to go to Australia for a good analysis.

From Nick O'Malley of the Sydney Morning Herald:
For a Republican establishment desperate to end the insurgency that has seen Donald Trump take over the party, the results of Saturday's primary in South Carolina could not have been much worse.
Not only did Trump secure another thumping victory, but the establishment's most significant hope for a unifying figure, Marco Rubio, practically tied for second place with another insurgent, Ted Cruz.
Indeed the only good news for the party's ruling class was the end of the race of its humbled favored son, Jeb Bush.
Pressure will now mount on other candidates, like John Kasich and Ben Carson, to leave the race to clear the way for Rubio. But both confirmed on Saturday night that they would do no such thing.
And even if they did, it is not clear that Rubio can beat Trump.
And there is this from O'Malley: "No Republican has ever won emphatic victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina and not gone on to win the party's nomination. It is now impossible to see Trump as anything but the favorite."

Yes, it is not over. But so far, all the king's horses and all the king's men have not stopped him. Rubio is their last best hope. We shall see.


  1. This shows that the GOP biggies are not liked, and not respected. That's my opinion. I could be wrong, but I've seen no arguments against that.

  2. Nobody sees the Popeye moment until it is too late.

    -Mikey NTH

  3. One third of the Republican electorate are intense Trump supporters. Nothing will change their mind.

    Guy Benson at Hot Air wrote about a Bloomberg poll in which 50% of Republicans say they will not vote for Trump if he is the nominee. In any prior cycle this would not be a concern. Primary voters are passionate about "their" candidate, but after the party selects its nominee they generally coalesce around him in the general election. This is far from a "typical" cycle and Trump is a unique candidate. It is not clear to me he can convert as many GOP unbelievers as had been typical in prior cycles.

    A month ago Gallup did a poll showing that among all adult Americans - not just Republicans - Trump had record high unfavorable at 60% and only 33% viewed Trump favorably. That 33% favorable is consistent with the support he has gotten in the three elections so far. Gallup says unfavorables typically rise in the general campaign after the parties select their nominees, so 60% unfavorable very well may be his floor, not a ceiling.

    52% of all Americans say Trump will be a poor or terrible president. Are a majority of people really going to vote for someone they expect will be poor or terrible? Now, maybe the polls are garbage. They've been terrible recently, but they are the only "objective" data we have.

    On the plus side, Republican debates are setting records in terms of television viewers. And in Iowa, NH, and SC Republican turnout has blown away prior records. So there is a lot of intensity on the GOP side. It's just not clear to me, yet, that Trump can persuade the non-believers or turn his favorables around. But he may not need to if he can create a new coalition. Nate Cohn at the New York Times wrote a piece recently that some of Trump's strongest supporters are a "certain kind of Democrat". And Think Progress wrote a piece last July about Trump's strong progressive tendencies. Jonathan Chait wrote a piece saying progressives should support Trump's nomination (not necessarily his election). So it is possible Trump will get enough new voters who had not previously participated in the process, and crossover Democrats to make up for the loss of support from the Republican coalition. It's hard to put it all together.

    However, I think the base case scenario based on current data is that he will lose the general election, possible by margins similar to Goldwater in '64 and McGovern in '72. In that case, then control of the Senate will flip and Chuck Schumer will be the new Majority Leader. He will change the filibuster rules about Supreme Court nominations so he can help the new president confirm to the Supreme Court four 40ish year old left wing replacements for Scalia, Ginsberg, Breyer, and Kennedy who will join the relatively youngish Kagan and Sotomayer. In which case, the Supreme Court will have a reliably left wing majority for 25-30 years, assuming none of the justices drop dead prematurely or retire early. Under this scenario, we are about to take a sharp, permanent, uncorrectable, ideological left turn. I'm not sure that's what most Trump supporters want.

  4. AuH2O lost because of the JFK assassination. It is that simple. McGovern lost because he was a commie. Later in life, he discovered capitalism and liked it. As for the court, Rubio gives you another John Roberts or three. Courthas been liberal all my life. I am 62

    1. Don I have to respectfully disagree. The Kennedy assassination had an impact, but Goldwater lost in one of the largest landslides in HISTORY. The GOP had a far different composition in 1964 with the Rockefeller arm of the party being far more powerful than it has been at any time since. Yes, Kennedy Democrats turned out, but that in no way explains the butt whoopin' Goldwater received.

    2. I heard a Sander Van Ocur talk about that. His claim was that Barry said the wrong things in the wrong places, like talking down the TVA in Tennessee and Social Security in Florida to retirees.

  5. This is the most unique GOP primary in my 50 years of political awareness. There has never before been this many legitimate candidates splitting the vote.

    With the exceptions of McCain and Gingrich former GOP candidates in the SC primary have reaped at least 45% of the vote. McCain had the closest number to Trump at 33% and lost in the general. No GOP candidate who got less than 45% of the primary vote in SC has ever won the general.

    I will be really surprised if significant numbers of Bush or Rubio supporters ever vote for Trump. The most violently anti-immigration voters in the Cruz camp may, but Trump has alienated most of the Cruz supporters.

    I hold out hope that the Great Bloviater who stands for almost nothing that I do is eliminated at some point. that in itself is a scary thought - when he is eliminated, being a childish narcissist he will likely claim the GOP treated him unfairly and file as an independent.

    1. However, there has never been this number of truly strong candidates in S.C. either. Trumps victory was night was impressive- the only guy in the field who had nearly as good a night was Rubio. However, we will know a great deal after March 1- we should have a good idea of who the nominee is after that day.

  6. 1980: Ronald Reagan won with 55%, defeating runner-up John Connally.
    1984: Uncontested (Reagan was the incumbent president and was re-nominated).
    1988: George H. W. Bush won with 49%, defeating runner-up Bob Dole.
    1992: George H. W. Bush won with 67%, defeating runner-up Pat Buchanan.
    1996: Bob Dole won with 45%, defeating runner-up Pat Buchanan.
    2000: George W. Bush won with 53%, defeating runner-up John McCain.
    2004: Uncontested (Bush was the incumbent president and was re-nominated).
    2008: John McCain won with 33%, defeating runner-up Mike Huckabee.
    2012: Newt Gingrich won with 40%, defeating runner-up Mitt Romney.
    2016: Donald Trump won with 32.5%, defeating Marco Rubio (22.5%), Ted Cruz (22.3%), Jeb Bush (7.8%), John Kasich (7.6%), and Ben Carson (7.2%).[8]

  7. And yet the Establishment thinks that Rubio would beat Hillary. She and the Press with beat him like a drum. I just don't know if Trump can win. I would hope that the Republicans that do not like him will still vote for him, and not do like they did to Romney. That's why we have BO again and would have Hillary. We are so F----- Screwed.

  8. "I will be really surprised if significant numbers of Bush or Rubio supporters ever vote for Trump."

    When Donald Trump, the modern day Moses, parts the Red Sea that is today's Democrat Party, Conservatives will have to decide for themselves whether to follow him to salvation in the promised land of honey or to stay behind and work as slaves to build more Big Government pyramids. I think most of them will take the plunge and hope for the best when they arrive victorious on the other side.

  9. Bless their hearts, but the Republican Establishment NeoCons like Karl Rove are even now telling us that Trump is finished. They were wrong the other two hundred times but this time they really mean it.

  10. Trump is really pretty tame compared to some of the slander and mudslinging that went on in the early days of our Republic. - Elric