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Tuesday, February 23, 2016

The establishment dooms Rubio

First, let me get this off my chest: Marco Rubio lost big time on Saturday in South Carolina. Despite spending three times the money and having a slew of endorsements, Rubio lost to Trump by 10 points.

But hope springs eternal, doesn't it?

People Against Trump are pushing a two-man race between Trump and Rubio.

They have numbers. They say if you add Jeb's numbers in South Carolina to Rubio's, he falls only a point or two behind Trump.


Now then, I have numbers, too.
Here is the reality, which dooms Rubio in such a match-up. Rubio would be the Establishment Candidate.

This election cycle, the anti-establishment candidates have consistently combined for a 60 percent share in the polls.

Establishment, 40 percent.

The Establishment spent $150 million trying to get Jeb nominated. It is unlikely spending another $150 million on Rubio will gain him the nomination.

Especially when Rubio's pitch is basically that his father was a bartender, therefore he should be the first Hispanic president.

You know who else's father was a bartender?

John Boehner.

Rubio should use this campaign as a trial run for a future bid. A Trump/Rubio tcket could do for him what Reagan/Bush did for Bush 41.

11 comments:

  1. The Establishment is clearly setting up Rubio for 2020 or 2024 and conceding this nomination to Trump. Interesting how Trump is laying off Rubio (at the moment) from his personal attacks, which is a bit unusual as Trump attacks anyone who seems to be gaining any popularity and Rubio is gaining it again (now that Chris Christie is no longer around to call Rubio out as the lightweight that he is). Possible VP candidate in Rubio? Cleary Cruz is not on Trump's radar.

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    1. Oh I agree. Rubio will be the leading candidate in the next contested nomination after Trump wins the nomination

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    2. Oh, maybe. Then again, Sen. Santorum's performance in 2012 netted him diddly/squat this year.

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  2. The GOP desperation is palpable. Pushing Rubio as the Establishment candidate is suicidal. But you know what they say, "When you're going down in flames you might as well aim for the biggest building." - Elric

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  3. With Senator Cruz's voters the most likely to pout and take their ball home, they are much more ideological, the more logical choice would be Trump/Cruz

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  4. Per William Schneider, ticket balancing is pointless as your single best guess is that it nets you 2% of the ballots in your running mate's home state, and nothing more. Regarding electoral competition, per Schneider, the point is to avoid injury from your running mate (meaning injuries such as those inflicted by Thos. Eagleton and Geraldine Ferraro). Neither Gerald Ford nor Bilge Clinton nor George W. Bush bothered with ticket-balancing. Ronald Reagan and John Kerry sought to co-opt a rival. Gerald Ford offered 3 criteria for a running mate: able to take over the presidency at a moment's notice, in general agreement on policy, and a good campaigner. It's difficult to see which surviving rival meets all three criteria. Were he to attempt to co-opt someone, Cruz is a more credible choice than Rubio. Potentially frustrating time for Cruz. It's such a stupid office and should be abolished.

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  5. I think given the evolution of support for the candidates between mid-January and mid-February, Rubio might garner an increment equal to nearly all of Kasich and Bush's polled support were they to withdraw and that Kasich might do the same were Rubio to leave the race. However, I'm not seeing how that nets them better than a hung convention.

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  6. Yeah, but look what Reagan/Bush did for us. It gave us George "Read My Lips" Bush. Just think what Marco "Gang of 8" Rubio can do for us.

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  7. Not "People Against Trump" - PAT; it is "Republicans Against Trump" - RAT.

    I do this because I am mean. And because without acknowledging it, the Republicans for months have been admitting that Trump is their nominee - that he is The Man to Beat.

    Now do not laugh, Democrats, because you also have been admitting - through you articles and opinion pieces - that Trump is The Man to Beat.

    What? Impossible you say? Look back at your articles, look at all of the calculations on how Hillary fares against Trump, and the paragraphs of relief written below as you reassure yourselves that Hillary will beat Trump.

    That isn't confidence.

    - Mikey NTH

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  8. The general election is a referendum on Trump. Catbird's seat, but we shall see.

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