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Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Sanders could cost Republicans the House and Senate





ANSWER: Republicans.

Say what?

Hear me out. The anti-Trump crowd at The Weekly Standard and the National Review gloated on Twitter because The Donald finished second in the Iowa Caucus with their champion, Marco Rubio finishing third.

Ted Cruz now has 8 delegates, Trump 7, and Cruz 6.

National Review has two scalps. In 1992 it had a very special edition which stood up to Patrick Buchanan, and helped stop his presidential run. And in 2012, Newt Gingrich.

The result was President Clinton in 1992, and a second term for President Obama.

But that is not, for now, the Republican problem. The Republican problem is Bernie Sanders with 49.5 percent finished in a virtual tie with Hillary Clinton with 49.9 percent. (Note to the math challenged: a statistical tie is when they have the same number; using the word "statistical" is ignorant. And the margin for error in an actual vote is zero.)

Now then what this means is Bernie could "Obama" Hillary. Bernie has enthusiasm behind him he is that Hillary lacks. And that enthusiasm could lead to a big win by Bernie in the fall that could easily cost Republicans both houses of Congress.

Thee fact is Republicans lost the 2012 House races 48.8 percent to 47.6 percent in the popular vote. What kept their control was the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which requires districts to be drawn in such a way that black people meet a certain quota in the House. Roughly 9 percent of the House is black, who represent 12 percent of the nation's population. One in four votes for Democrats now come from blacks, which give Democrats a decided disadvantage in the other congressional districts.

However, in 2008, Democrats schlonged Republicans, 53.2 percent to 42.6 percent in the House races.

So we know that if a Democrat wins the White House, Democrats will win the House popular vote. The question is whether the win will be large enough to make a difference. The 10.6 percent margin in 2008 was enough to give Nancy Pelosi a 77-seat advantage.

That advantage was wiped out in the next election.

Paul Ryan enjoys a 59-seat advantage.

In the Senate, Republicans have to defend 24 seats, Democrats only 10. The Senate seems lost no matter how the presidential race goes.

So what's the big deal? Republicans lose Congress for two years to a Democratic president. What could happen in two years?

Another Obamacare.

The Conservative Commentariat in the Capital City have opposed every populist movement. Oh they give good lip service now to Reagan, but they hated him. And Newt Gingrich in 1994. And the Tea Party in 2010.

Those conservatives enjoyed Buchanan, Gingrich and now Trump losing.

Those conservatives do not care. They love playing the underdog to Washington, in fact they are the Washington Generals to the Democratic Party's Harlem Globetrotters.

So laugh at Hillary, but prepare to feel the Bern, America.

The only hope is that Ted Cruz, Donald Trump or Marco Rubio -- whoever wins -- can whip up a Reaganian majority.

Heck, a Dubyanian one would do.

14 comments:

  1. Keep in mind that the LibDem caucuses were basically a 2 way race (Martin O'Who?) whereas the GOP one was an 11 way race. Just because half went for Bernie doesn't mean he is loved by all of them. Maybe he was the least bad choice they had.

    The Republican problem is, as Don notes, the GOPe which hates anyone and anything not vetted and approved by them. Also the doctrinaire one-issue conservatives who won't turn out in Nov to vote for a nominee who is not 100% committed to their single issue.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who or what exactly is the "GOPe"? Is it Cruz, Rubio and/or Trump who all say proudly they are non-DC elitist/anti-establishment candidates. Is the GOPe all the Tea Partiers who helped the Rs win historic gains in both D.C. chambers in last election. Just who is "vetting and approving" R candidates? And the biggest question of all for you Holding: what is the "single issue" that will keep conservatives home on election day?
      Funny post. Trump falls way short in Iowa; Bernie shows he is legit and all of a sudden, the Ds are about to take over Washington.

      Delete
    2. The GOPe is the establishment pseudo conservatives who fund Jeb, Marko, and several of the other republicans. They are the spendaholics, the polar opposite of the TEA party. They ae the reason that the republicans, with control of both houses have fully failed to do anything substantial to right the wrongs of the first years of Obozo. They are for open borders, amnesty, TPTA and a host of other things true conservatives oppose. They are the reason that the last budget funded in full things that have conservatives screaming, like planned child murder, and Barry's aid to border jumpers.

      Delete
    3. Still doesn't make sense. The Rs took over both houses due largely in part to Tea Party candidates.
      And ... still wondering what will keep conservatives home on election day if the R nominee is "not 100% committed to their single issue."?

      Delete
  2. I don't buy it, Don. Obama was a stealth commie who ran as a moderate and fooled enough people to git 'er done. Bernie wears his rat bastard communism on his sleeve and could never get more than about 35% of the popular vote.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dennis - That is why I admire Bernie. He makes no pretensions about who he is and what he stands for. In this age of too-much-information, that is a most refreshing change.
      That said, I will never vote for him. But when anyone who has an internet connection can see all the double-speak/pandering/flip flopping from Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Clinton, it is easy to see why Sanders attracts such a following, especially from young adults who are so disenfranchised by these other snake oil salesmen (and woman).

      Delete
    2. Dennis - Obungler did not run as a moderate. He ran as an unabashed liberal. Remember "Spread the wealth around"? He was the most liberal member of the Senate. Why conservative pundits like Peggy Noonan and others fell for his BS is beyond me, but peggy forever tarnished her brand.

      Delete
  3. If the Rs lose control of Congress, they have no one to blame but themselves.

    The only solution is to primary every Whig.

    PS Tell McLaughlin a bigger field means a more fragmented vote.

    ReplyDelete
  4. "Anonyass" admires Bernie because he's a straight shooter. Try getting him to say how he's going to pay for everything he has promised. Tall about snake oil.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sanders has been rather open with how he would pay for many things he promises. that is why I would never vote for him. Yet, he doesn't sway with the wind like Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Clinton. Got to Sanders props for that at least.

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    2. Crus doesn't sway with the wind! He's a rock solid constitution loving conservative. unlike trump, Rubio (gang of 8), jeb!, etc.....

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  5. Relax, Don. The Democrats face an 11% enthusiasm gap to the GOP for the 2016 elections. This is supposedly unprecedented. The pro GOP gap in 2010 was plus 7. In 2014, it was plus 9.
    Historically, it's very hard for a party to win a 3rd consecutive term.
    All is well...so far.
    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/02/historic_11point_enthusiasm_gap_favors_gop.html

    ReplyDelete
  6. Relax, Don. The Democrats face an 11% enthusiasm gap to the GOP for the 2016 elections. This is supposedly unprecedented. The pro GOP gap in 2010 was plus 7. In 2014, it was plus 9.
    Historically, it's very hard for a party to win a 3rd consecutive term.
    All is well...so far.
    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/02/historic_11point_enthusiasm_gap_favors_gop.html

    ReplyDelete