ANSWER: Republicans.Sanders 50%— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) February 2, 2016
Which party has a bigger problem?
Hear me out. The anti-Trump crowd at The Weekly Standard and the National Review gloated on Twitter because The Donald finished second in the Iowa Caucus with their champion, Marco Rubio finishing third.
Ted Cruz now has 8 delegates, Trump 7, and Cruz 6.
National Review has two scalps. In 1992 it had a very special edition which stood up to Patrick Buchanan, and helped stop his presidential run. And in 2012, Newt Gingrich.
The result was President Clinton in 1992, and a second term for President Obama.
But that is not, for now, the Republican problem. The Republican problem is Bernie Sanders with 49.5 percent finished in a virtual tie with Hillary Clinton with 49.9 percent. (Note to the math challenged: a statistical tie is when they have the same number; using the word "statistical" is ignorant. And the margin for error in an actual vote is zero.)
Now then what this means is Bernie could "Obama" Hillary. Bernie has enthusiasm behind him he is that Hillary lacks. And that enthusiasm could lead to a big win by Bernie in the fall that could easily cost Republicans both houses of Congress.
Thee fact is Republicans lost the 2012 House races 48.8 percent to 47.6 percent in the popular vote. What kept their control was the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which requires districts to be drawn in such a way that black people meet a certain quota in the House. Roughly 9 percent of the House is black, who represent 12 percent of the nation's population. One in four votes for Democrats now come from blacks, which give Democrats a decided disadvantage in the other congressional districts.
However, in 2008, Democrats schlonged Republicans, 53.2 percent to 42.6 percent in the House races.
So we know that if a Democrat wins the White House, Democrats will win the House popular vote. The question is whether the win will be large enough to make a difference. The 10.6 percent margin in 2008 was enough to give Nancy Pelosi a 77-seat advantage.
That advantage was wiped out in the next election.
Paul Ryan enjoys a 59-seat advantage.
In the Senate, Republicans have to defend 24 seats, Democrats only 10. The Senate seems lost no matter how the presidential race goes.
So what's the big deal? Republicans lose Congress for two years to a Democratic president. What could happen in two years?
The Conservative Commentariat in the Capital City have opposed every populist movement. Oh they give good lip service now to Reagan, but they hated him. And Newt Gingrich in 1994. And the Tea Party in 2010.
Those conservatives enjoyed Buchanan, Gingrich and now Trump losing.
Those conservatives do not care. They love playing the underdog to Washington, in fact they are the Washington Generals to the Democratic Party's Harlem Globetrotters.
So laugh at Hillary, but prepare to feel the Bern, America.
The only hope is that Ted Cruz, Donald Trump or Marco Rubio -- whoever wins -- can whip up a Reaganian majority.
Heck, a Dubyanian one would do.