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Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Wile E. Coyote, what is your next plan to stop Trump?



After the Saturday Night Massacre in South Carolina, Bush dropped out.

The Conservative Commentariat was ecstatic. This was a game changer. You take the votes of Bush and Rubio and voila, you Sink The Donald.

So what happened? Two nights after winning by 10 in South Carolina, Trump won by 22 in Nevada.

In fact, if you add the votes of Cruz (21.4%) to the votes of Rubio (23.9%) you still fall short of The Donald (45.9%).

The Weekly Standard reported:
Mitt Romney won Nevada's caucus in 2012 with about 50 percent of the vote. He did so by pulling in roughly 16,000 total votes – roughly the same number that second-place finisher Marco Rubio pulled in this year. Donald Trump, by contrast, more than doubled Romney's total, garnering 34,500 votes.
That pattern has played out across all of the early states, which are seeing huge Trump-inspired (and, at some level, anti-Trump-inspired) turnout.
All told, Trump has now won approximately 420,000 votes. After the first four states had voted in 2012, Mitt Romney had won about 387,000 votes. Back in 2008, meanwhile, eventual nominee John McCain had won a little more than 250,000 votes after Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada had voted.
Before the primaries got underway in earnest, many assumed that Trump would fare more poorly than his poll numbers indicated because so many of his supporters had rarely voted in the past. But with this election, the past has not been a reliable predictor of future events.
Got that? He is bringing in voters to the party. No one else has done that in 36 years.

And man, did the RNC hate that last guy to do it back in 1980. They called him a racist, decried his voodoo economics, and said he could not be trusted with his finger on The Button.

From 538:
Did Trump win Hispanics in Nevada? You can be sure that Trump will tell us he did! There was a lot of nerd-fighting over who won the Hispanic vote in the Democratic caucuses in Nevada, and we suspect there will be some over the Republican caucuses as well. Indeed, the entrance poll had Trump beating Rubio 45 percent to 28 percent among Hispanics. But keep in mind that the sample size on that result is somewhere between 100 and 200 people. That means the margin of sampling error for the Hispanic subgroup is near +/- 10 percentage points (or even higher). Perhaps more importantly, just 8 percent of Republican voters were Hispanic (or 1 percent of the Nevadan Hispanic population), and they are not politically representative of the larger Hispanic community.
Excuses, excuses, excuses. Trump is taking the Hispanic vote because he is bringing in Hispanic voters. Black voters too.

You know, for a "racist," Trump sure does a lousy job of turning off minority voters.

Bush carried Nevada in 2000 and 2004. Obama carried Nevada in 2008 and 2012. But hey, Nevada does not matter, right?

Republicans have looked for the next Reagan for years. But 20 years from now, we may be looking for the next Trump.

It is not over. He has a ceiling, right? He will lose Texas to Cruz, Florida to Rubio, Ohio to Kasich, and Mars to Carson. Trust the Establishment. All Rubio needs is $100 million more and another 100 political endorsements and everything will be just dandy. Acme Company has this guaranteed Trump Runner Elimination Ray Gun.

Meep meep!

14 comments:

  1. Don's physics theory of the 3 way smash up has passed its first test in the big collider. I hope his theory of the final run is also correct. He has yet to publish the math though.

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    1. Hey, no one told me there would be math.

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  2. Nice Roadrunner analogy. Along the same lines the GOP establishment is like Wile Coyote standing on thin air over the abyss just before he plummets.

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    1. Don did goooooooooooood with that one!

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  3. Senators Cruz and Rubio must be shaking their heads this morning and asking if anybody got the license plate of that bus that ran them over. - Elric

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  4. Yes, I guess that Trump has it in the bag. I just don't think that if by some off chance Rubio got the nomination he could beat Hillary. He would come off as a little kid. Cruz would not, he would stand up to her. But Trump, well might crush her. He would have to control his mouth better though.

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  5. I once (can't remember where) saw Cruz' election to the Senate described as a fluke. What if that's the real answer to the One True Ted's inability to finish better than third?

    Maybe he's just a lousy candidate. If he can't win his home state convincingly (or win at all), that may be the reason why.

    As for Rubio, he's more seasoned politically, but he's got the Gang of 8 and the Whigs around his neck, so he won't do too well.

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  6. The Law of Unintended Consequences: Behind the scenes, the Democrats surely have serious doubts about Clinton. They are probably thinking Biden will have to be their nominee if they're to have any chance of winning in November. But if Trump keeps winning the Republican primaries with big margins, Hillary is a goner. The Obama administration will stop protecting her from multiple indictments and the DoJ will get the green light to prosecute. That's when Biden will step in. In the election, Trump will be the hungry tiger, Biden the slab of raw meat in the main dinner course. It is all going as I have foreseen. (TM)

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  7. I don't think Cruz will win Texas, or if he does it will be by less than 5%. I don't think Rubio will win Florida, either. He ran as a tea party candidate then turned into a John McCain clone.

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  8. Politicians acting like politicians doesn't look like the winning plan this year.

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  9. Start saying "Trump" to the tune of "The Imperial March."

    -Mikey NTH

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  10. Personally, I welcome our new Trump master.

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  11. PS: Nice picture of Rubio. I would caution him against using that expression in the woods during deer season.

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  12. The managerial ruling class is taking it on the nose. I hope that this is only the beginning.

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