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Friday, January 01, 2016

Predictions for 2015

A mere 13 months ago, 2015 was the coming new year. People made forecasts for 2015. Let's see how some of those worked out.

From the New York Times: "Under Affordable Care Act, 25 Percent Increase in Health Insurers Is Predicted."

The opposite happened as United Health and other companies quit offering Obamacare, and several state exchanges folded shop.

From Fortune: "There’s a lot to look forward to in 2015: The Apple Watch will debut, medical science will advance, and most economists expect global growth to accelerate — led by a strengthening U.S. economy. Sure, China’s juggernaut is slowing, gridlock in Washington looks worse than ever, and there may be a coffee shortage, but most forecasts in the U.S. point to a sunnier 2015. Hopefully they’re right. As any meteorologist will tell you, predicting the future is nearly as difficult as it is important."

And this: "The Apple Watch Succeeds! Some analysts say Apple could ship 30 million of its computers-on-a-wrist in 2015. That’s hardly an iPhone-size number, but still big revenue for Apple."

By the end of November, Apple sold 7 million and the company's stock had its first down year since 2008.

And this: "The S and P 500 will close the year at 2312 ...a roughly 10% boost from today’s levels."

S and P fell and closed at 2044.

From the New York Times: "New Ebola Cases May Soon Reach 10,000 a Week, Officials Predict."

And: "Ebola Cases Could Reach 1.4 Million Within Four Months, C.D.C. Estimates."

The United Nations reported 28,000 new cases last year.

From Reuters:
1. The Obama boom will finally arrive.  Only it will be more like a boomlet.
Americans have been waiting for the boom since they elected President Barack Obama in the teeth of the 2008 financial meltdown. After all, we elected Ronald Reagan during an economic downturn in 1980, and by his second term, the economy had turned around (“Morning in America”).  We elected Bill Clinton in an economic downturn in 1992, and by his second term, the economy had come roaring back (the “dot-com boom,” now known as the “dot-com bubble”).  Now we’re deep into Obama’s second term. Where’s da boom?
It’s finally starting. Not only does it look like the economy is picking up, but we’re beginning to see real wage growth. What’s holding things back is the lack of any fiscal stimulus. Government spending is “sequestered.” This entire recovery has been driven by the Federal Reserve (zero interest rates). The drop in oil prices is also helping. (Not helping the stock market, though. Energy stocks are dragging the market down.)
Democrats will take whatever strong recovery they can get. Maybe it will save the White House for them in 2016.
Well, oil prices did drop -- for the same reason they sank in 2008: Global recession.

No. 2 was right, "Populism will thrive, left and right, in the United States and in Europe."

No. 3 was wrong, but who cares? "Obama’s job approval ratings will improve, but only a little."

No. 4 was right, but who cares? "Hillary Clinton will run for the 2016 Democratic nomination. "

And then there was this:
5. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush will run for the Republican nomination.
The party establishment is ready to throw buckets of money at Bush. They need him to save the GOP from the dreaded Tea Party, the creepy religious right and the flaky libertarians. Bush will end 2015 as the Republican frontrunner — but only narrowly. The rest of the Republican primary vote will be divided among five or six candidates from the various conservative clans.
It's time for Miss Tammy Wynette:

Finally, and much more seriously, President Obama on the Islamic State: “The analogy we use around here sometimes, and I think is accurate, is if a jayvee team puts on Lakers uniforms that doesn’t make them Kobe Bryant.”

Terror deaths worldwide doubled in his watch in 2015.


  1. Just proved what we always suspected, anybody that believes those idiots is going to be mightily disappointed.

  2. A very useful post. The question is, how do you hold these people who make such bad predictions accountable? By the end of the year, who remembers anything that was published as the year began? Unfortunately, being totally wrong doesn't seem to diminish their reputations. They never publicly confess their errors in order to atone for having been so wrong.

    If they are that bad, it might lead one to question whether anything they publish during the year is correct. News organizations love to demand that others be held to account for their errors, so I have to ask why they shouldn't also be brought to account? When they make a mistake, shouldn't they have to pay penance. It's only right, the fair thing, that they be treated the same way they treat others.

  3. The Arizona Cardinals will win the Super Bowl over the New England C̶h̶e̶a̶t̶r̶i̶o̶t̶s̶ Patriots. The next day the Supreme Court will order the Lombardi trophy be given to New England because love wins, or whatever else Anthony Kennedy can find out of a 99 cent Hallmark card.

  4. The LSM AKA propaganda arm of the Dimocrat Party has been predicting an Obungler boom ever since he was elected. Remember "green shoots" and "recovery summer"? Instead, Obummercare became the drag on the economy that those of us with brains knew it would be. And the numbers are even worse than what the government has been feeding us. Real unemployment (counting those who have given up looking for work and part time workers seeking full time jobs) is in the double digits and I'm sure the growth numbers are fudged as well. 2015 was the worst year for stocks since 2008. One more year of Obumbler to go!

  5. Reuters: "Americans have been waiting for the boom since they elected President Barack Obama..." And then they claim it's coming.I give you this: Tickets are NOW available for the EIGHTH ANNUAL tough of The Summer Of Recovery! Operators are standing by at 1-800-IMAFOOL and at out website,
    As for #5, "The party establishment is ready to throw buckets of money at Bush. They need him to save the GOP from the dreaded Tea Party, the creepy religious right and the flaky libertarians." This says it all, and explains why Trump is doing so well. I await the RNC asking me for money so I can use their mailing money to tell them they won't get a cent from me.

  6. Predictions are difficult; especially about the future. (quote)

    This, however, has been around for a very long time.

    I do not know what it means other than the constancy of Scooby is a center of spastic hunger and panic upon which all of existence revolves.

    Embrace the Zen of Mikey-ness upon your path to the oneness of Scooby Dooby Doo.

    -Mikey NTH