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Thursday, January 28, 2016

Peak Bernie?

A story on Microsoft's "Bing Predicts" played up that this software is predicting Trump to roll to a 9-point win in Iowa, 27-point win in New Hampshire, and 21-point win in South Carolina.

But what struck me was how Bernie Sanders seems to be fading.

From Tech Insider:
Before you write this off solely as a marketing gimmick, you should know that the tool has a pretty impressive track record — with politics in particular:
Bing Predicts was spot on with the outcome of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, and it correctly predicted the outcomes for all of the 15 games in the knockout round of the 2014 World Cup.
In terms of US politics, Bing Predicts did pretty well in predicting how the 2014 midterm elections would go. It was 97% accurate in predicting the outcome of Senate races, 96% accurate predicting the outcome of House of Representatives races, and 89% accurate in predicting the outcomes of races for governor.
Right now it predicts a 3-point win for Hillary in Iowa, followed by an 18-point win for Bernie in New Hampshire. That is good news for Senator Sanders. But then Hillary crushes him by 27 points in South Carolina and 72 points in Nevada.

But a good showing in Iowa and New Hampshire might give Bernie Sanders momentum, which would lift his numbers.

Still, barring an indictment in March, Sander Mania may peak in New Hampshire, as so many other campaigns have.


  1. All according to the plan. Knockout Bernie, get Hillary over the delegate hump, indict her, then install Michelle Obama as the nominee in an open convention.

  2. Which probably explains why Bernie's campaign spokespeople came out today and said they do not trust the computer software Microsoft is supplying both parties to tally the results of the voting. Apparently Bernie's computer gurus have created their own unofficial software to keep tabs on the MS-supplied software that's being used to tabulate the official results. Paranoid about the Clinton Machine, Benie?

  3. If Bernie gets his licks in early and wounds Hillary he could get some traction. It would be like the Austro-Hungarian Navy sinking British battleships.

    -Mikey NTH

  4. Here's a good article about the real Bernie: