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Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Nate Silver writes off The Donald again



Nate Silver parlayed averaging poll results into a career, which is cool. You don't have to poll or do anything, just feed off the work of others. It's kinda like my blogging.

On Monday, Nate Silver took on what he called the Donor Class of Republicans:
Several recent stories, like this one from the Washington Post’s Philip Rucker and Robert Costa, report that influential Republicans have become increasingly resigned to the prospect of Donald Trump as their nominee. One theme in these stories is that the GOP “donor class” seems to have persuaded itself that Trump might not be such a bad general election candidate.
On that point, the donor class is probably wrong.
He cited the fact that more likely voters in America have an unfavorable opinion of Trump than have a favorable opinion.



So among Democrats, Trump comes out minus 70, among independents minus 27, and among Republicans plus 27.

Plus 27.

Wait?

Just seven months ago, Nate Silver's site wrote Trump off -- said he had no chance of winning the Republican nomination -- none -- zero -- zilch because his favorability was minus 32 among Republicans. From "Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart":
A whopping 57 percent of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to an average of the three most recent polls. That beats former record holder Pat Buchanan, who had a 43 percent unfavorable rating at this point in the 2000 election cycle. Buchanan, of course, ended up running as an independent.
So in seven months, Trump went from minus 32 to plus 27 among Republicans, something Nate Silver and company failed to consider last June. But it is now improbable for Trump to improve his favorability among independents or Democrats (or even the remaining Republicans who don't like him) in the next 10 months.

We shall see.

7 comments:

  1. Nate Silver is the Karl Marx of statistics and polling. Marx's big ideological blind spot is that he never grasped how much circumstances and people can change with time. Nate Silver is headed for the trash bin of polling history.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Silver correctly predicted the Presidential outcomes in 49 of 50 states in 2008 and was 100% correct in the 2012 election including all 50 states and DC.

      I am not betting against the 538 editor in 2016 - that's for sure. And that is with or without an historic trash container.

      Delete
    2. Silver correctly predicted the Presidential outcomes in 49 of 50 states in 2008 and was 100% correct in the 2012 election including all 50 states and DC.

      I am not betting against the 538 editor in 2016 - that's for sure. And that is with or without an historic trash container.

      Delete
    3. Now yours is precisely the kind of thinking that got poor Karl in trouble. Throughout history, people have had a way of doing the "unexpected" by going against the odds. Life is more than a statistical coin flip.

      Delete
    4. When did he make the predictions in 2008 and 2012 you cite? January? No, 48 hours before the election.
      It is January 19, not November 6

      Delete
  2. Silver is pretty good at what he does, so I do not dismiss him.

    (wait for it...)

    However, I would like to see how the polls have been trending since the candidates announced to get an idea of what has happened. Presidential elections are dependent on the personalities of the candidates, the outgoing president, and the events that are between now and November. A trend line would give an idea how well the candidates have reacted to events and give a feel (I would not say prediction) for what may come.

    -Mikey NTH

    ReplyDelete
  3. Nate Silver made his name in 2008. He was fed the Obama campaign's internal polling.

    Those numbers matched the results better than any other polls because the Obama campaign added in the number of votes they expected to manufacture via outright vote fraud on election day.

    ReplyDelete