Nate Silver parlayed averaging poll results into a career, which is cool. You don't have to poll or do anything, just feed off the work of others. It's kinda like my blogging.
On Monday, Nate Silver took on what he called the Donor Class of Republicans:
Several recent stories, like this one from the Washington Post’s Philip Rucker and Robert Costa, report that influential Republicans have become increasingly resigned to the prospect of Donald Trump as their nominee. One theme in these stories is that the GOP “donor class” seems to have persuaded itself that Trump might not be such a bad general election candidate.
On that point, the donor class is probably wrong.He cited the fact that more likely voters in America have an unfavorable opinion of Trump than have a favorable opinion.
So among Democrats, Trump comes out minus 70, among independents minus 27, and among Republicans plus 27.
Just seven months ago, Nate Silver's site wrote Trump off -- said he had no chance of winning the Republican nomination -- none -- zero -- zilch because his favorability was minus 32 among Republicans. From "Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart":
A whopping 57 percent of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to an average of the three most recent polls. That beats former record holder Pat Buchanan, who had a 43 percent unfavorable rating at this point in the 2000 election cycle. Buchanan, of course, ended up running as an independent.So in seven months, Trump went from minus 32 to plus 27 among Republicans, something Nate Silver and company failed to consider last June. But it is now improbable for Trump to improve his favorability among independents or Democrats (or even the remaining Republicans who don't like him) in the next 10 months.
We shall see.