On June 17, 2015, the day after Donald Trump formally entered the Republican presidential race as the 17th and last candidate, Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post descended from the mountain and declared Trump's candidacy dead:
Among Republicans -- you know, the people who decide the identity of their party's presidential nominee -- Trump has a net negative 42 rating. As in 23 percent of Republicans had a favorable view of Trump while 65 percent(!) had an unfavorable one. Want even more? Compare the number of Republicans who feel strongly favorable to Trump (11 percent) to those who feel strongly unfavorable (43 percent). No one in the field is anywhere close to those numbers; New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is the only candidate other than Trump to have higher unfavorable than favorable ratings among his own party.
And it's not even (or only) his brutal image problems that doom Trump. Just one in ten Republicans (11 percent) have no opinion of him. So, Trump is both extremely well known and extremely disliked by the members of the party he is running to represent.
You cannot and do not win anything when your numbers look like Trump's. I can't say it any more clearly than that. There's nothing you can say or do -- not that Trump would ever even consider going on an image rehabilitation tour -- to change how people feel about you. Republicans know Trump. And they really, really don't like him.Back into the mountains went Cillizza.
Today, Cillizza has returned from the mountain:
The Iowa caucuses are 10 days from Friday. And Donald Trump, the larger-than-life real estate reality star, is — still — the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. Not only has Trump not disappeared or imploded — as everyone everywhere predicted he would — he appears to be getting stronger in both early-state and national polling as actual votes draw closer.
At this point, Trump's path to putting the nomination away quickly is far easier than the one Hillary Clinton must travel to capture the Democratic nomination. That doesn't mean Trump is a sure thing just yet, but he has, without question, the best chance of any Republican running to claim the party's top prize.I don't go by the polls. I go by the pols. How they behave matters. Trump and Bernie draw crowds. Hillary draws flies.
As Feynman said, the easiest person to fool is yourself.
Me? I do not care who Republicans nominate. I will vote in teh May primary and by that time, I expect it to be over.