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Thursday, January 21, 2016

About your chart that shows Donald Trump cannot win



Melania Trump (right) and husband.


John Hawkins has a post that is sure to get a lot of readers today, and good for him: "The Chart That Proves Donald Trump Has No Chance In A General Election."

The chart shows that among the general public, more people have an unfavorable opinion about Trump (Hawkins says 58 percent) than favorable (33 percent). That's a negative 25.

"Whether Donald Trump wins the Republican primary or not, he’ll never be the President of the United States. Well, I shouldn’t say never. Hillary could go to jail, a meteor could strike, space aliens could show up — it’s probably wise to never say never. On the other hand, it’s also never a good idea to go into a presidential election needing a miracle to win," Hawkins wrote.

But why should we care about The Donald? Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post assured us on June 16, 2015, that Donald Trump had no chance of winning the Republican nomination, writing:
There's a tendency when someone like Donald Trump announces that he is running for president to view -- and analyze -- him through the same lens that we do for the other men and women actively seeking the presidency.  What's his policy vision? Who's in his political inner circle? What would a Trump presidency look like?
Asking any of these questions gives Trump a benefit of the doubt that he simply doesn't deserve: That a path exists for him to be president.
It doesn't. Not even close.
Here's all you need to know about Trump's seriousness as a candidate, in one simple chart.
Among Republicans -- you know, the people who decide the identity of their party's presidential nominee -- Trump has a net negative 42 rating. As in 23 percent of Republicans had a favorable view of Trump while 65 percent(!) had an unfavorable one.  Want even more? Compare the number of Republicans who feel strongly favorable to Trump (11 percent) to those who feel strongly unfavorable (43 percent). No one in the field is anywhere close to those numbers; New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is the only candidate other than Trump to have higher unfavorable than favorable ratings among his own party.
One chart.

Well, now make that two.

Because in the intervening seven months, Trump's minus 42 among Republicans became a plus 27 among them, according to Gallup.

12 comments:

  1. Trumps negatives are too high and they are not coming down

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  2. As a conservative, I just don't see the appeal of Trump. So what if he's not PC, points out the stupidity of government bureaucrats and their response to the immigrant invasion. It doesn't make Trump a conservative. We'll see how the next 6 months transpire but at this stage, Trump will get the yahoo vote but anyone calling themselves conservative can't be serious about Trump.

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    1. How about those who think the GOP "establishment" are worthless SOB sell-outs and will want to elect the Donald in revenge (REVENGE) for what they've done to and with the party?

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    2. Looking at the GOPe/Whig party, it is clear that anyone who calls themselves a Conservative cannot be serious about them. We gave them both Houses of Congress. Their response has been to abjectly surrender to the Leftists more abjectly by the minute. There is no one in the leadership of the Republicans who views their own voters more kindly than they view the Democrats.

      It comes down to Trump or Cruz if you want to oppose both the GOPe and later the Democrats. Trump is winning.

      A man is known by the quality of his enemies. Trump has ALL the right enemies.

      First we defeat the Republicans. Then we defeat the Left.

      Subotai Bahadur

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    3. Actually, as a Conservative, I see a lot of the "yahoo" crowd going for Cruz. I have never seen a crowd go so berserk at the idea someone is challenging their boy.

      And Cruz has a number of negatives, too. Remember how "unlikable" he was supposed to be?

      This stuff cuts both ways.

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    4. Donald Trump is not a conservative. That has been noted before; indeed, it does not seem that he is running as a conservative. Instead he is running as a nationalist.

      Nationalist.

      Let that sink in a bit first. Neither conservative nor liberal matters as a badge if there is no nation to provide policies to. Neither party has shown much concern for the nation called the United States of America nor its citizens. They seem to spend a lot of energy getting exercised about the concerns and opinions of foreigners instead of the citizens they are supposed to represent.

      Mr. Trump is a master marketer - he has been, successfully, marketing himself for almost forty years. He has a good read on the audience, and he put his finger right on that one point that the national politicians of both parties did not want to address.

      He spoke out against unlimited immigration and unlimited migration into the USA. And the usual suspects went forth with "racist sexist homophobic bigot Islamophobic misogynist stupid know-nothing poopy-head" and Donald Trump shrugged them off and shot back at PC. And he won that round.

      And winning that round - taking on PC and knocking it down, stating out loud that the Emperor has no clothes - is the wave that started him.

      So he isn't a conservative - like conservatives have been really useful lately, and he is pretty liberal socially - like that would add anything to my burdens. But he is a nationalist...which is so refreshing to hear that I'm getting dizzy from the uniqueness of it all.

      Sorry to be so long-winded. Next time I'll just go to the old AoSHQ response of FY, NQ?

      -Mikey NTH

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  3. you all underestimate people who want revenge on the GOP and DNC establishment who have been using the office to enrich their buddies... and will vote for Trump just to spite those candidates.

    ...the very same establishments that brought you people like Al Gore (who lost to bush) and Romney ...who remember was the most conservative canidate out of the pick ...but the real reason the GOP wanted him was that he could be controlled by the elite.

    the DNC favors hillary because they know she can be controlled and used to enrich the liberal elite.

    ...btw... Ted Cruz takes donations from Goldman Sachs (so you already have an indication of one of his puppetmasters)
    the very same goldman sachs he called out as a 'Crony capitalist'. his own words.

    ....odd since y'know those Ted Cruz supporters claim he is conservative and follows said principles/lesser government.

    he tried to hide it too. *lol* so ya, it tells you something about Ted Cruz doesn't it? he is another bought and paid for politician by the elite and he'll lie to your face and pretend to be against something... when he is either part of it, or for it.

    the worst part about Ted Cruz? He reminds people of Romney - who didn't even put up much of a fight against 0bama and lost.


    ...the funny thing about this... is the DNC is no different, they obviously want Hillary as the nominee but if she goes up against Trump....
    Hillary has so much baggage on her, and add to the fact she is an insider (a part of the very reason why D.C. is so corrupt.) and benghazi, and now the sending of top secret emails through an unsecure channels ...and you realize Hillary is too damaged and she'll lose the election to someone like Trump.

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  4. When Paul Ryan passed the Omnibus with mostly Democratic support my estimation of Trump changed for the better overnight.

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  5. If Trump is elected President, I won't be ashamed of our nation's First Lady any longer. You like that, Nicolas Sarkozy!!! [/snarc]

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  6. Republican House and Senate, I can't see they've done much better than Pelosie and that Idiot from Nevada. At least Trump would call out the PC Social Justice Liberal whack jobs.

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  7. Trump could be the only candidate that will point out hillary's corruption. None of the others will do that for fear of offending the lsm.

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