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Monday, July 06, 2015

Next president likely from Florida

The Florida primary on March 15, 2016, could determine who wins the Republican nomination because the state party made it a winner-take-all presidential contest for the state's 99 delegates. The Republican candidate likely is the next president, given the rarity of a political party hanging on to the White House for more than two terms (Republicans last did it under Reagan and the first Bush, and Democrats have done it only once in the five-term FDR and Truman presidency).
Brilliant move by the Florida Republican Party.

But Politico does not see things that way:
For years, Florida Republicans have been trying to boost their state’s relevance in the battle for the GOP nomination. But their latest move — making the March 15 primary a winner-take-all contest — is showing signs of backfiring.
By awarding all of the state’s 99 GOP delegates to the primary winner, the state is dangling a significant prize in front of White House hopefuls. But with two native sons in the race, the high-stakes nature of the contest is also providing an excuse to skip the most expensive primary state and spend their money elsewhere.
I disagree. I think Florida made a good move that will get either Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush the nomination, which will help Florida.

Skipping Florida looks nice on paper but momentum counts more than money in the primaries. Given its mid-March positioning, this is a late primary.By then, the field should narrow considerably. I really don't see how skipping Florida will  do anything but stop a candidate's momentum -- and I don't see anyone squeezing past both Rubio and Bush.

But we shall see.


  1. On the other hand, they could knock each other out. On the gripping hand, one or both may be on the way out then. I don't want Bush, and I question Rubio.

  2. As a Florida resident, I don't plan to vote for either of them. Rubio lied about amnesty in the Senate primary and Jeb! is in favor of Common Core and amnesty.

  3. As a FloridIan I concur with Sam and Rick. Neither Bush nor Rubio say much for Florida republicans.

  4. Because Politico is a good source of information, said no sentient being ever.