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Thursday, March 19, 2015

It's not news. It's CNN.™

From CNN: "Hillary Clinton continues to be a dominant force heading into the 2016 presidential election, according to a new CNN/ORC poll. The former secretary of state maintains a broad lead over the field of potential Democratic challengers she could face in a nomination contest and sizable advantages over the leading contenders from the Republican side in general election match-ups."

Uh, huh.

More from the CNN story:
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush tops the possible field for the Republican Party's nomination race, followed by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former neurosurgeon Ben Carson all in a tight cluster.
But none of the top candidates in this field gets within 10 points of Hillary Clinton in a series of hypothetical general election matchups.
Rand Paul comes closest, with 43% saying they'd be more likely to back him while 54% choose Clinton. The two candidates who currently top the GOP field, Bush and Walker, match up equally against Clinton, with each carrying 40% to her 55%. Huckabee gets 41% to Clinton's 55% and Carson has 40% to Clinton's 56%.
In the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, Clinton holds a nearly 50-point lead over Vice President Joe Biden, her closest competitor in the field, 62% to 15%. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren rounds out the top three on the Democratic side with 10%. No other potential candidate tops 5%.
Yep, that is what CNN reported.

So who did they poll? The reliable "likely voters"? Nope.

The less reliable "registered voters"? Nope.

"The CNN/ORC International poll was conducted by telephone March 13-15 and included interviews with 1,009 adult Americans."

Adults.

Just plain, generic adults, regardless of whether they vote or not, or whether they know Mike Huckabee from Huckleberry Hound.

So not only is this a poll that is 18 months ahead of the election, 40% of the people surveyed will not vote in 2016 -- based on voter turnout in presidential elections that is around 60%.

(54% in 2000, 60% in 2004, 62% in 2008, and 57% in 2012.)

Flipping a coin may be more accurate than this CNN/ORC poll,

A little over 8 years ago, another CNN story on another CNN poll said, "Recently re-elected Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York is twice as popular as her nearest Democratic rivals in the 2008 presidential race, according to a new CNN poll."

That was a poll of registered voters, which is more accurate than just any old adults.

Her nearest rival was some freshman senator from Illinois. Wonder whatever happened to him.

Remember: It's not news. It's CNN.™

2 comments:

  1. It's another one of those "Dewey Defeats Truman" headlines. Or, you can think of it as CNN paying a polling company to make faux predictions that CNN can report as "news."

    ReplyDelete
  2. If it's CNN, it's Not News. Opinion, bafflegab, idiocy, and worse are more likely,

    ReplyDelete